KaVontae Turpin
WR · Dallas Cowboys · bye week 14
This week on the boardNFL Week 1 predictions →Week 2 predictions →
Week 1 vs NYG — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.
Our Week 1 projection for KaVontae Turpin, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has KaVontae Turpin this week
- As of Sep 11, 6:00 PM ET, Kalshi prices KaVontae Turpin at 30.5¢ for 2+ rec against NYG in Week 1.
- As of Sep 11, 6:00 PM ET, Kalshi prices KaVontae Turpin at 34.5¢ for 10+ rush yds against NYG in Week 1.
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
The Ladder — KaVontae Turpin
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Books | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ rec | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Books | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ rush yds | 🔒 | — | — | — | YES → |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ recDAL v NYG | 30.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 10+ rush ydsDAL v NYG | 34.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 11, 6:00 PM ET, books as of Sep 11, 5:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Week 1 distribution
Rec Yds
10th 0·median 15·90th 52
Receptions
10th 0·median 2·90th 5
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value
Projected points
79
4.7 per game
Consensus ADP
293
round 25
WR rank
WR110
model has him WR120
2026 range
10th pct 37·median 72·90th pct 117
Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
The market drafts him 19 spots earlier than our board does at WR — we are lower on him than consensus.
Cowboys 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about KaVontae Turpin
What are KaVontae Turpin's Kalshi props for Week 1?
As of Sep 11, 6:00 PM ET, Kalshi lists 2 strikes on KaVontae Turpin against NYG: 2+ rec at 30.5¢, 10+ rush yds at 34.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.
What is KaVontae Turpin's 2026 projection?
KaVontae Turpin projects 79 half-PPR points (4.7 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 293 (round 25). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
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- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
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- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
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- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-11; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.