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NFL WEEK 1

Model vs. Kalshi on all 16 openers

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FOMC SEPT 16

Kalshi, Polymarket and futures disagree on the Fed

Decision Wed 2pm ET

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SILVER EDGE

Options vs. Kalshi on weekly silver brackets

Darnell Mooney

WR · New York Giants · bye week 8

This week on the boardNFL Week 1 predictions →Week 2 predictions →

Week 1 vs DAL — every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus, and our model's call. Prediction-market props, priced in cents.

Our Week 1 projection for Darnell Mooney, the Oracle calls on his Kalshi props, and the season range behind them. The draft-season read (ADP, value tag) sits at the bottom. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.

Where the market has Darnell Mooney this week

A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.

Prop market — every Kalshi strike

Full market board →
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for Darnell Mooney with a two-sided book: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus at that strike, the gap in cents, and the cheapest venue per side. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
ContractKalshiConsensusGapBest priceTrade
20+ rec ydsNYG v DAL47.5¢—no booksKalshi onlyKalshi →

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 11, 6:30 PM ET, books as of Sep 11, 5:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

Week 1 distribution

Rec Yds

10th 13·median 40·90th 110

Receptions

10th 1·median 3·90th 6

The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.

Draft-season read — 2026 projection, ADP and value

Projected points

127

7.5 per game

Consensus ADP

235

round 20

WR rank

WR72

model has him WR66

2026 range

10th pct 59·median 115·90th pct 187

Measured, not simulated. Our WR projections have landed inside this band 78% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.

The market drafts him 5 spots later than our board does at WR. That gap is why he carries a value tag.

Giants 2026 schedule

Team hub →

Week 1

vs DAL

Week 2

at LAR

Week 3

vs TEN

Week 4

vs ARI

Week 5

at WAS

Week 6

vs NO

Week 7

at HOU

Week 9

at PHI

Week 10

vs WAS

Week 11

vs JAX

Week 12

at IND

Week 13

vs SF

Week 14

at SEA

Week 15

vs CLE

Week 16

at DET

Week 17

at DAL

Week 18

vs PHI

Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.

How this projection is built

Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.

The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.

Want the whole board? All 322 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.

Questions about Darnell Mooney

What are Darnell Mooney's Kalshi props for Week 1?

As of Sep 11, 6:30 PM ET, Kalshi lists 1 strike on Darnell Mooney against DAL: 20+ rec yds at 47.5¢. A Kalshi prop contract pays $1 if the threshold is cleared, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability. Every strike on this page carries the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold beside it.

What is Darnell Mooney's 2026 projection?

Darnell Mooney projects 127 half-PPR points (7.5 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 235 (round 20). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.

How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?

A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.

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Projections as of 2026-09-11; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.