Macro prediction markets are Kalshi's bread and butter. With CFTC approval to list economic event contracts, Kalshi has become a leading destination for traders who want to take positions on Fed decisions, inflation data, and recession probability.
Key Macro Markets on Kalshi
Recession Probability
The KXRECSSNBER series tracks whether the NBER will declare a US recession. Currently trading around 32% — a number that moves sharply around economic data releases.
CPI Inflation Markets
Monthly CPI bracket markets let you trade on where inflation will land. These markets see hundreds of thousands in volume around each CPI release date.
Federal Reserve Rate Decisions
FOMC decision markets price the probability of rate hikes, cuts, or holds at upcoming Fed meetings. High volume, tight spreads, and they move fast around Fed speeches.
GDP Growth
Quarterly GDP markets track whether growth will hit specific thresholds. Useful for hedging broader macro exposure.
How to Use Macro Markets
Macro prediction markets are useful for:
1. Hedging — if your portfolio is rate-sensitive, buying a "Fed cuts" contract can offset losses
2. Speculation — trade your macro thesis directly
3. Information gathering — what does the aggregate market believe about inflation?
Use the Probability Converter to compare Kalshi macro prices against Fed funds futures and economist consensus.
Track today's macro market moves on the Kalshi daily movers page.