Crypto prediction markets are some of the most actively traded contracts on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Bitcoin price targets, ETH milestones, and crypto regulatory outcomes all draw massive volume.
Bitcoin Prediction Markets on Kalshi
Kalshi lists several types of Bitcoin markets:
- Annual price targets — Will BTC reach $100K by year end?
- Weekly/monthly price brackets — What price range will BTC be in?
- Event-driven markets — Halving outcomes, ETF approval impacts
The annual Bitcoin bracket markets on Kalshi (KXBTCY) let you trade specific price ranges for January 1, 2027. Adding up all bracket probabilities above $100K gives an implied probability that can be compared against Polymarket's direct "$100K by Dec 31" contract.
Current implied edge: Kalshi brackets imply ~18% for BTC reaching $100K. Polymarket prices it at ~44%. That's a 26 percentage point gap — one of the biggest cross-platform edges we track.
Ethereum and Altcoin Markets
Polymarket tends to have more altcoin and DeFi-related prediction markets. Kalshi focuses primarily on Bitcoin price and regulatory outcomes.
How to Read Crypto Prediction Market Prices
A Bitcoin market at 44¢ means the market implies a 44% chance of the specified outcome. Use the Probability Converter to translate these to American odds (+127 in this case).
Track live crypto market prices and cross-platform gaps on the Kalshi daily movers page.