Soccer is the world's most-traded sport on global prediction markets — this is PredictionMarketsPicks’ guide to where it trades and how the three-outcome contract works. While US-focused platforms like Kalshi are still building out their soccer coverage, Polymarket sees massive volume on Champions League, World Cup, and top European league outcomes.
What soccer markets does Kalshi list?
A growing but still-thin set — Kalshi has been expanding its soccer coverage with:
- Premier League — every fixture as a three-way home / draw / away contract, set against Polymarket on our Kalshi vs Polymarket Premier League board
- MLS — regular season game winners and playoff futures
- World Cup 2026 — tournament winner and group markets, plus our full 72-match prediction index and 48-team simulation results
- Champions League — knockout stage and final markets
- Copa América and other tournaments
What soccer markets does Polymarket list?
The deep ones — Polymarket has significantly deeper soccer liquidity, particularly for:
- Premier League — title race, top 4, relegation, priced club by club on Kalshi and Polymarket US
- Champions League — winner, semifinal matchups
- International tournaments — World Cup qualifying, Euros
Note: Polymarket is two venues. US traders use Polymarket US (CFTC-designated, live since December 2025, state-by-state); the international book quoted by most price feeds is closed to US persons and is a separate order book. See our Polymarket US guide.
How do you trade soccer prediction markets?
By pricing three outcomes, not two: soccer prediction markets work differently from other sports because of the three-outcome structure (win/draw/loss). That draw changes how contracts are built: rather than a simple two-way market, Kalshi and Polymarket typically list win, draw, and loss as separate contracts that each resolve on a specific result. Always read a market's resolution terms — a "France to win" contract pays only on a France win, not on a draw. PredictionMarketsPicks’ World Cup 2026 match pages break down win/draw/loss probabilities for all 72 group-stage fixtures, with our simulation's lean on each.
Key factors for soccer market edges:
- Home field advantage is consistently underpriced in early markets
- Squad rotation around fixtures creates mispricing opportunities
- Referee assignment affects style of play and card/penalty markets
Use the Probability Converter to compare Kalshi cents to European bookmaker odds.
The soccer prediction markets hub keeps all of this in one place: live Premier League prices, the World Cup archive and the guides. For a worked example of reading a futures market, see our Premier League title-race read.
Track soccer and other sports markets on the Kalshi daily movers page.