Soccer is the world's most-traded sport on global prediction markets. While US-focused platforms like Kalshi are still building out their soccer coverage, Polymarket sees massive volume on Champions League, World Cup, and top European league outcomes.
Soccer Markets on Kalshi
Kalshi has been expanding its soccer coverage with:
- MLS — regular season game winners and playoff futures
- World Cup 2026 — tournament winner and group markets, plus our full 72-match prediction index and 48-team simulation results
- Champions League — knockout stage and final markets
- Copa América and other tournaments
Soccer Markets on Polymarket
Polymarket has significantly deeper soccer liquidity, particularly for:
- Premier League — title race, top 4, relegation
- Champions League — winner, semifinal matchups
- International tournaments — World Cup qualifying, Euros
Note: Polymarket is two venues. US traders use Polymarket US (CFTC-designated, live since December 2025, state-by-state); the international book quoted by most price feeds is closed to US persons and is a separate order book. See our Polymarket US guide.
How to Trade Soccer Prediction Markets
Soccer prediction markets work differently from other sports because of the three-outcome structure (win/draw/loss). That draw changes how contracts are built: rather than a simple two-way market, Kalshi and Polymarket typically list win, draw, and loss as separate contracts that each resolve on a specific result. Always read a market's resolution terms — a "France to win" contract pays only on a France win, not on a draw. Our World Cup 2026 match pages break down win/draw/loss probabilities for all 72 group-stage fixtures, with our simulation's lean on each.
Key factors for soccer market edges:
- Home field advantage is consistently underpriced in early markets
- Squad rotation around fixtures creates mispricing opportunities
- Referee assignment affects style of play and card/penalty markets
Use the Probability Converter to compare Kalshi cents to European bookmaker odds.
Track soccer and other sports markets on the Kalshi daily movers page.