IA Senate
Iowa Senate winner? (2026)
4888k contracts traded · 2989k open
IA SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Toss-up · Cook, Sabato | Lean R · Inside Elections
Iowa Senate Race 2026: Josh Turek vs Ashley Hinson Odds
Iowa became an open seat when Joni Ernst chose to retire, and open seats are where the market earns its keep. The contract leans Republican — Iowa has trended red — but stripping out the incumbency premium widens the band, and the price moves fastest around candidate recruitment. A lean-not-lock seat worth watching if the national environment shifts.
Seat held by Joni Ernst (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Ashley Hinson leads the Iowa Senate market at 59¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 59%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean R (Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Joni Ernst (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 13, 2:37 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Iowa Senate
Josh Turek
Democrat42¢
Ashley Hinson
Republican59¢
Seat held by Joni Ernst (R) — open seat.
Live Iowa Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic — free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
Download the PNG or paste this into your page:
<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/iowa-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-iowa-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/iowa-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Iowa Senate race: Ashley Hinson 59%, Josh Turek 42%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/iowa-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-iowa-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest Iowa Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Turek (D) | Hinson (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist | Sep 17–20 | 1,050 RV · ±4.4 | 50% | 42% | D+8 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions.
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What the combination contract says about this race
Kalshi also lists a four-outcome contract on Iowa's Senate and governor races together. Almost nobody prices it against the two standalone races — and the difference is the interesting part, because it is the market's statement about how tightly the two offices move as one.
- Implied correlation
- +0.25
- Widest disagreement
- +5¢
- Combination book
- 105¢
The combo is pricing a moderate link: the same statewide environment moves both races, but not in lockstep.
A read on correlation, not an arbitrage — every combination book is wide enough that the gap is not a tradeable spread. The four outcomes sum to 105¢ rather than 100¢, and 0¢ of probability sits outside them entirely, since a non-major-party winner in either race resolves all four to No.
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<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/ia/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Iowa Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/iowa-senate">Iowa Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
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Iowa Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Ashley Hinson (R) at 59¢ — a 59% implied chance — to win the Iowa Senate race; Josh Turek (D) is at 42¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean R (Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Iowa Senate race a toss-up?
Yes, by the market’s read: the favorite, Ashley Hinson, trades at 59¢, inside the 40–60¢ band where a few points of national environment decide it. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Iowa Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Iowa Senate race are Josh Turek (Democrat) and Ashley Hinson (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Iowa Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Iowa Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Iowa in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Iowa contract this cycle.