VA Senate
Virginia Senate winner? (2026)
32k contracts traded · 14k open
VA SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
Virginia Senate Race 2026: Mark Warner vs Bert Mizusawa Odds
Virginia is a safe Democratic hold with Mark Warner running for re-election, though it is worth watching as the most competitive of the “safe” Democratic seats. The market prices it firmly Democratic, but the state’s off-year swings mean the contract carries a slightly fatter tail than the deep-blue holds — the kind of seat a national wave would test first.
Seat held by Mark Warner (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Mark Warner leads the Virginia Senate market at 97¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 97%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Mark Warner (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 13, 12:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Virginia Senate
Mark Warner
Democrat97¢
Bert Mizusawa
Republican3¢
Seat held by Mark Warner (D) — incumbent.
Live Virginia Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/virginia-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-virginia-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Virginia Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Mark Warner (D) at 97¢ — a 97% implied chance — to win the Virginia Senate race; Bert Mizusawa (R) is at 3¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Virginia Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Mark Warner at 97¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 3%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Virginia Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Virginia Senate race are Mark Warner (Democrat) and Bert Mizusawa (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Virginia Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Virginia Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Virginia in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Virginia contract this cycle.