NC Senate
North Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
1610k contracts traded · 1422k open
NC SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
North Carolina Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
North Carolina opened up when Thom Tillis headed for the exit, and recruitment decided the shape of it: former governor Roy Cooper (D) against Republican Michael Whatley, with the market pricing Cooper as a clear favorite — a likely Democratic pickup in a state that usually leans red. It is the cleanest example on the board of candidate quality overriding partisan gravity. Watch whether Republicans can drag it back toward the state’s fundamentals; the live price says they haven’t yet.
Seat held by Thom Tillis (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Roy Cooper leads the North Carolina Senate market at 92¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 92%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Thom Tillis (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the North Carolina seat
Thom Tillis
RepublicanOpen seat
Not on the 2026 ballot — the live board below carries the candidates and the current market favorite.
Live North Carolina Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
North Carolina Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Thom Tillis (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the North Carolina Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the North Carolina Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in North Carolina in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the North Carolina contract this cycle.
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