NC Senate
North Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
3169k contracts traded · 2715k open
NC SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Likely D · Cook | Lean D · Inside Elections, Sabato
North Carolina Senate Race 2026: Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley Odds
North Carolina opened up when Thom Tillis headed for the exit, and recruitment decided the shape of it: former governor Roy Cooper (D) against Republican Michael Whatley, with the market pricing Cooper as a clear favorite — a likely Democratic pickup in a state that usually leans red. It is the cleanest example on the board of candidate quality overriding partisan gravity. Watch whether Republicans can drag it back toward the state’s fundamentals; the live price says they haven’t yet.
Seat held by Thom Tillis (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Roy Cooper leads the North Carolina Senate market at 95¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D (Cook Political Report) and Lean D (Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Thom Tillis (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 5:22 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for North Carolina Senate
Roy Cooper
Democrat95¢
Michael Whatley
Republican5¢
Seat held by Thom Tillis (R) — open seat.
Live North Carolina Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic — free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
Download the PNG or paste this into your page:
<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/north-carolina-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-north-carolina-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/north-carolina-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 North Carolina Senate race: Roy Cooper 95%, Michael Whatley 5%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/north-carolina-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-north-carolina-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest North Carolina Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Cooper (D) | Whatley (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon University | released Sep 10 | LV | 49% | 38% | D+11 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions.
Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the North Carolina Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
Article width · 1200×628
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/nc/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="North Carolina Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/north-carolina-senate">North Carolina Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Sidebar · 300×600
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/nc/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="North Carolina Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/north-carolina-senate">North Carolina Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every race where the markets disagree, the moment they do
Pro adds the cross-market layer to every race and deadline: the full Thee Oracle dashboard, the full Kalshi-vs-Polymarket price-gap board, and edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens.
Claim 26% off →
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
North Carolina Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Roy Cooper (D) at 95¢ — a 95% implied chance — to win the North Carolina Senate race; Michael Whatley (R) is at 5¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Likely D (Cook Political Report) and Lean D (Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the North Carolina Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Roy Cooper at 95¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 5%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for North Carolina Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the North Carolina Senate race are Roy Cooper (Democrat) and Michael Whatley (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the North Carolina Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the North Carolina Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in North Carolina in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the North Carolina contract this cycle.