AK Senate
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
779k contracts traded · 449k open
AK SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Toss-up
Alaska Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Alaska is the board’s quiet shocker: Dan Sullivan is running for re-election, but the market prices the Democratic side as a slight favorite — the incumbent trading in the low 40s in a state that usually leans Republican. Alaska’s ranked-choice system has burned favorites before, and the contract is pricing exactly that kind of upset risk. Treat the live number as a real toss-up, not a red-state formality; this is where a straight-line partisan rating is most likely to be wrong.
Seat held by Dan Sullivan (R)running
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Democratic party leads the Alaska Senate market at 64¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 64%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Dan Sullivan (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Alaska seat
Dan Sullivan
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Alaska Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Alaska Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Dan Sullivan (Republican) and rated toss-up; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Alaska Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Alaska in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Alaska contract this cycle.
Get The 7 Oracles newsletter — midterm market alpha, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.