AK Senate
Alaska Senate winner? (2026)
2687k contracts traded · 1425k open
AK SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Toss-up · Cook, Inside Elections | Lean D · Sabato
Alaska Senate Race 2026: Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan Odds
Alaska is the board’s quiet shocker: Dan Sullivan is running for re-election against Democrat Mary Peltola, and the market prices the Democratic side as the favorite in a state that usually leans Republican — while all three major forecasters still rate the seat a toss-up. Alaska’s ranked-choice system has burned favorites before, and Peltola has won statewide under it. This is where a straight-line partisan rating is most likely to be wrong; the live price above is the market’s read, and the gap between it and the rating is the whole story.
Seat held by Dan Sullivan (R)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Democratic party leads the Alaska Senate market at 74¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 74%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections) and Lean D (Sabato's Crystal Ball), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Dan Sullivan (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 4:07 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Alaska Senate
Mary Peltola
Democrat74¢
Dan Sullivan
Republican27¢
Seat held by Dan Sullivan (R) — incumbent.
Live Alaska Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic — free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
Download the PNG or paste this into your page:
<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/alaska-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-alaska-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/alaska-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Alaska Senate race: Mary Peltola 74%, Dan Sullivan 27%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/alaska-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-alaska-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest Alaska Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Peltola (D) | Sullivan (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AARP | Sep 8–11 | LV | 46% | 41% | D+5 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions. First-round ballot; Alaska counts by ranked choice.
Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Alaska Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
Article width · 1200×628
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/ak/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Alaska Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/alaska-senate">Alaska Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Sidebar · 300×600
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/ak/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Alaska Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/alaska-senate">Alaska Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every race where the markets disagree, the moment they do
Pro adds the cross-market layer to every race and deadline: the full Thee Oracle dashboard, the full Kalshi-vs-Polymarket price-gap board, and edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens.
Claim 26% off →
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Alaska Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Mary Peltola (D) at 74¢ — a 74% implied chance — to win the Alaska Senate race; Dan Sullivan (R) is at 27¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections) and Lean D (Sabato's Crystal Ball); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Alaska Senate race a toss-up?
Not quite. Mary Peltola is a clear favorite at 74¢, but Dan Sullivan at 27¢ — about a 27% chance — means the lead is far from safe. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Alaska Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Alaska Senate race are Mary Peltola (Democrat) and Dan Sullivan (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Alaska Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Alaska in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Alaska contract this cycle.