TN Senate
Tennessee Senate winner? (2026)
370k contracts traded · 323k open
TN SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections
Tennessee Senate Race 2026: Marquita Bradshaw vs Bill Hagerty Odds
Tennessee is a safe Republican hold with Bill Hagerty running for re-election, and the market prices it as a formality. There is no meaningful general-election edge in a state this red; the contract sits firmly Republican and functions as a red-state anchor for the board.
Seat held by Bill Hagerty (R)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Bill Hagerty leads the Tennessee Senate market at 93¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 93%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Bill Hagerty (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:07 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Tennessee Senate
Marquita Bradshaw
Democrat7¢
Bill Hagerty
Republican93¢
Seat held by Bill Hagerty (R) — incumbent.
Live Tennessee Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/tennessee-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-tennessee-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Tennessee Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Bill Hagerty (R) at 93¢ — a 93% implied chance — to win the Tennessee Senate race; Marquita Bradshaw (D) is at 7¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Tennessee Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Bill Hagerty at 93¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 7%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Tennessee Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Tennessee Senate race are Marquita Bradshaw (Democrat) and Bill Hagerty (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Tennessee Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Tennessee Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Tennessee in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Tennessee contract this cycle.