TN Senate
Tennessee Senate winner? (2026)
32k contracts traded · 15k open
TN SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Tennessee Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Tennessee is a safe Republican hold with Bill Hagerty running for re-election, and the market prices it as a formality. There is no meaningful general-election edge in a state this red; the contract sits firmly Republican and functions as a red-state anchor for the board.
Seat held by Bill Hagerty (R)running
Who holds the Tennessee seat
Bill Hagerty
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Tennessee Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Tennessee Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Bill Hagerty (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Tennessee Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Tennessee Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Tennessee in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Tennessee contract this cycle.
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