MI Senate
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
2449k contracts traded · 1788k open
MICHIGAN 2026Live · updated hourly
Michigan 2026 — Senate, Governor, and the Combination Contract
Michigan runs an open Senate seat and an open governorship on the same ballot, and Kalshi quotes a third contract on the pair of them. Everyone publishes the two races. Nobody checks whether the contract on the pair agrees with the two markets it is built from — which is what this page does, and keeps doing after November 3.
Quick Answer
As of August 25, 2026, Michigan's two statewide races price very differently — the market has the Democratic Senate contract at 61¢ and the Democratic governor contract at 88¢ — and the contract on the pair is quoting a link between them worth +5.7 points on the Democratic sweep alone.
Senate: Abdul El-Sayed 61¢ · Mike Rogers 40¢.
Governor: Jocelyn Benson 88¢ · John James 12¢.
Combination contract implies a correlation of 0.28 between the two Democratic outcomes. The combo is pricing a moderate link: the same statewide environment moves both races, but not in lockstep.
The combination contract, priced against its legs
Kalshi · four outcomes · updated hourlyKalshi lists a single contract on the pair of Michigan races — which party wins the governorship and which wins the Senate seat, as one four-outcome market. The Senate and Governor markets are separately quoted and far deeper. Multiply those two deep markets together and you get what the pair would be worth if the races moved independently. The combination contract does not quote that number, and the gap is the correlation the market is actually pricing.
| Outcome | Combo | If independent | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats win bothSWEEPD gov / D sen | 58¢ | 53¢ | +5.7 ppView on Kalshi → |
| Democratic Governor, Republican SenatorD gov / R sen | 31¢ | 35¢ | −4.0 ppView on Kalshi → |
| Republican Governor, Democratic SenatorR gov / D sen | 3¢ | 7¢ | −4.4 ppView on Kalshi → |
| Republicans win bothSWEEPR gov / R sen | 7¢ | 5¢ | +2.7 ppView on Kalshi → |
Implied correlation
0.28
The combo is pricing a moderate link: the same statewide environment moves both races, but not in lockstep.
What the two boards disagree on
The combination contract implies a Democratic governor at 89¢ and a Democratic senator at 61¢. The deep single-office markets have them at 87¢ and 60¢. Those are the same two questions asked twice; where they part, the thinner book is usually the one that is wrong.
Read this before trading it
- The four quoted contracts sum to 107¢, not 100¢. That excess is the width of a thin book, not free money — the table above normalizes it out before comparing anything, which is why a wide market cannot manufacture a difference.
- These four outcomes do not cover everything. A winner from outside the two major parties resolves all four to No, and the separate office markets price that at about 1¢. That mass is excluded from the comparison rather than quietly redistributed.
- A difference here is a read on correlation, not an arbitrage. Two statewide races in the same state genuinely move together, so the honest question is whether the market has the size of that link right — not whether independence was the right model.
The two statewide races
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MI Gov
Michigan Governor winner? (2026)
308k contracts traded · 189k open
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability. The Senate seat is open — Gary Peters is retiring — with Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, the Republican who came within roughly a third of a point of winning Michigan in 2024. The governorship is open too, and carries a live independent line in Mike Duggan, which is why the four-outcome contract above cannot cover every result.
Michigan House districts on the board
Michigan 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Michigan Senate-and-Governor combination contract?
It is a single Kalshi contract on the pair of Michigan races rather than either one on its own. It has four outcomes — Democrats win both, Democrats win the governorship and Republicans the Senate seat, the reverse, or Republicans win both — and exactly one of them pays $1. Kalshi lists nine of these for 2026 (Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Alaska, Kansas, Georgia and New Hampshire). The Senate and Governor markets are quoted separately and are far deeper, so the interesting question is whether the pair contract agrees with them.
How do you price a combination contract against its legs?
Take the price of the Democratic Senate contract and the price of the Democratic governor contract, normalize each market so its outcomes sum to 100, and multiply. That product is what each combined outcome would be worth if the two races moved independently of one another. It is a baseline, not a fair value — two statewide races in the same state genuinely move together — so the gap between the quoted combination price and the independent product is a measurement of how much correlation the market is pricing, not a mispricing on its own.
Is the gap between the combo and its legs an arbitrage?
No, and treating it as one is the mistake. The combination book is thin: its four contracts quote a bid-ask width that alone can move each outcome several cents, and the table on this page normalizes that width out before comparing anything. What is left is an analytical read on correlation. There is also mass the four outcomes cannot cover — an independent winner in either race resolves all four to No — which this page excludes rather than quietly redistributing.
Why does Michigan have three candidates priced in the governor market?
Because Mike Duggan, the Detroit mayor, is running for governor as an independent rather than in either primary, so Kalshi carries a third line alongside the Democratic and Republican nominees. That matters for the combination contract specifically: its four outcomes are party-versus-party, so an independent winner would resolve every one of them to No. The probability the market assigns him is the residual shown on this page.
Who is running in Michigan in 2026?
The Senate seat is open — Gary Peters is retiring — and the nominees are Abdul El-Sayed for the Democrats and Mike Rogers for the Republicans. Rogers lost Michigan by roughly 0.34 percent in 2024, the second-narrowest Senate margin in the country behind Pennsylvania at 0.22 percent, so he is a measured statewide quantity while El-Sayed has never won a statewide race. The governorship is also open, with Jocelyn Benson and John James the major-party nominees and Mike Duggan running as an independent.
How accurate was the market in Michigan in 2024?
Michigan is one of the two best calibration cases in the country. The Senate race was decided by roughly a third of a percentage point, and a market that priced it near a coin flip was more right than any forecaster who called it outright. That is the case for reading these contracts as probabilities rather than predictions, and it is why this page keeps its numbers after November instead of being retired.
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