KY Senate
Kentucky Senate winner? (2026)
189k contracts traded · 90k open
KY SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections
Kentucky Senate Race 2026: Charles Booker vs Andy Barr Odds
Kentucky is the marquee open seat of the cycle after Mitch McConnell’s retirement — but open or not, the market prices it as a safe Republican hold in a deep-red state. The story is entirely in the Republican primary to succeed the longtime leader; the general-election contract sits firmly Republican, and the interesting pricing is which successor the market backs, not which party wins.
Seat held by Mitch McConnell (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Andy Barr leads the Kentucky Senate market at 96¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 96%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Mitch McConnell (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 4:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Kentucky Senate
Charles Booker
Democrat4¢
Andy Barr
Republican96¢
Seat held by Mitch McConnell (R) — open seat.
Live Kentucky Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic — free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
Download the PNG or paste this into your page:
<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/kentucky-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-kentucky-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/kentucky-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Kentucky Senate race: Andy Barr 96%, Charles Booker 4%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/kentucky-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-kentucky-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Kentucky Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
Article width · 1200×628
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/ky/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Kentucky Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/kentucky-senate">Kentucky Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Sidebar · 300×600
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/ky/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Kentucky Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/kentucky-senate">Kentucky Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every race where the markets disagree, the moment they do
Pro adds the cross-market layer to every race and deadline: the full Thee Oracle dashboard, the full Kalshi-vs-Polymarket price-gap board, and edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens.
Claim 26% off →
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Kentucky Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Andy Barr (R) at 96¢ — a 96% implied chance — to win the Kentucky Senate race; Charles Booker (D) is at 4¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Kentucky Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Andy Barr at 96¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 4%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Kentucky Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Kentucky Senate race are Charles Booker (Democrat) and Andy Barr (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Kentucky Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Kentucky Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Kentucky in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Kentucky contract this cycle.