IL Senate
Illinois Senate winner? (2026)
19k contracts traded · 15k open
IL SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
Illinois Senate Race 2026: Juliana Stratton vs Don Tracy Odds
Illinois opened up with Dick Durbin’s retirement, but an open seat in a reliably blue state does not move the market much — it prices as a safe Democratic hold. The real contest is the Democratic primary; the general-election contract sits deep on the Democratic side, and the edge, if any, is in how the field consolidates rather than who ultimately wins in November.
Seat held by Dick Durbin (D)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 13, 2026, Juliana Stratton leads the Illinois Senate market at 97¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 97%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Dick Durbin (D) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 13, 11:22 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Illinois Senate
Juliana Stratton
Democrat97¢
Don Tracy
Republican2¢
Seat held by Dick Durbin (D) — open seat.
Live Illinois Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/illinois-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-illinois-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Illinois Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
As of October 13, 2026, Kalshi prices Juliana Stratton (D) at 97¢ — a 97% implied chance — to win the Illinois Senate race; Don Tracy (R) is at 2¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Illinois Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Juliana Stratton at 97¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 3%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Illinois Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Illinois Senate race are Juliana Stratton (Democrat) and Don Tracy (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Illinois Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Illinois Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Illinois in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Illinois contract this cycle.