FL Senate (Special)
Florida Senate winner? (2026 Special)
117k contracts traded · 75k open
FL SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely R
Florida Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Florida is a special election for the seat Marco Rubio vacated, now held by appointee Ashley Moody. The market prices it as likely Republican — Florida has drifted red — but an appointee defending a first statewide run carries more uncertainty than an entrenched incumbent, and that is the gap the contract is pricing. Watch whether the price treats this like the safe seats or leaves a real Democratic tail.
Seat held by Ashley Moody (appointed 2025) (R)running (appointee — Rubio seat)
Who holds the Florida seat
Ashley Moody
RepublicanAppointed incumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Florida Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Florida Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Ashley Moody (appointed 2025) (Republican) and rated likely r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Florida Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Florida Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Florida in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Florida contract this cycle.
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