FL Senate (Special)
Florida Senate winner? (2026 Special)
1335k contracts traded · 1060k open
FL SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato
Florida Senate Race 2026: Angie Nixon vs Ashley Moody Odds
Florida is a special election for the seat Marco Rubio vacated, now held by appointee Ashley Moody. The market prices it as likely Republican — Florida has drifted red — but an appointee defending a first statewide run carries more uncertainty than an entrenched incumbent, and that is the gap the contract is pricing. Watch whether the price treats this like the safe seats or leaves a real Democratic tail.
Seat held by Ashley Moody (appointed 2025) (R)running (appointee — Rubio seat)
Quick Answer
As of October 11, 2026, Ashley Moody leads the Florida Senate market at 91¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 91%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Ashley Moody (R) — appointed incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 3:52 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Florida Senate
Angie Nixon
Democrat9¢
Ashley Moody
Republican91¢
Seat held by Ashley Moody (R) — appointed incumbent.
Live Florida Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic — free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
Download the PNG or paste this into your page:
<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/florida-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-florida-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/florida-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Florida Senate race: Ashley Moody 91%, Angie Nixon 9%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/florida-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-florida-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Florida Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
Article width · 1200×628
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/fl/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Florida Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/florida-senate">Florida Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Sidebar · 300×600
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/fl/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Florida Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/florida-senate">Florida Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every race where the markets disagree, the moment they do
Pro adds the cross-market layer to every race and deadline: the full Thee Oracle dashboard, the full Kalshi-vs-Polymarket price-gap board, and edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens.
Claim 26% off →
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Florida Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
As of October 11, 2026, Kalshi prices Ashley Moody (R) at 91¢ — a 91% implied chance — to win the Florida Senate race; Angie Nixon (D) is at 9¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Florida Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Ashley Moody at 91¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 9%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Florida Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Florida Senate race are Angie Nixon (Democrat) and Ashley Moody (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Florida Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Florida Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Florida in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Florida contract this cycle.