OK Senate
Oklahoma Senate winner? (2026)
5.4k contracts traded · 3.8k open
OK SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Oklahoma Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Oklahoma is a safe Republican hold with Markwayne Mullin running for re-election. The market gives it barely a glance; there is no general-election edge in a state this red, and the contract functions as a deep-red calibration anchor for the board rather than a live trade.
Seat held by Markwayne Mullin (R)running
Who holds the Oklahoma seat
Markwayne Mullin
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Oklahoma Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Oklahoma Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Markwayne Mullin (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Oklahoma Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Oklahoma Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Oklahoma in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Oklahoma contract this cycle.
Get The 7 Oracles newsletter — midterm market alpha, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.