MT Senate
Montana Senate winner? (2026)
685k contracts traded · 390k open
MT SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato
Montana Senate Race 2026: Alani Bankhead vs Kurt Alme Odds
Montana is an open seat with Steve Daines retiring, but the market prices it as a safe Republican hold — the state has moved decisively red at the federal level since its last competitive Senate race. The open-seat framing adds primary intrigue without much general-election doubt; the contract sits firmly Republican and moves on who wins the nomination, not November.
Seat held by Steve Daines (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 13, 2026, Kurt Alme leads the Montana Senate market at 93¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 93%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Steve Daines (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 13, 11:22 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Montana Senate
Alani Bankhead
Democrat1¢
Kurt Alme
Republican93¢
Seth Bodnar
Independent7¢
Seat held by Steve Daines (R) — open seat.
Live Montana Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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Montana Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
As of October 13, 2026, Kalshi prices Kurt Alme (R) at 93¢ — a 93% implied chance — to win the Montana Senate race; Seth Bodnar (I) is at 7¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Montana Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Kurt Alme at 93¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 7%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Montana Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Montana Senate race are Alani Bankhead (Democrat), Kurt Alme (Republican) and Seth Bodnar (independent), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Montana Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Montana Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Montana in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Montana contract this cycle.