MT Senate
Montana Senate winner? (2026)
472k contracts traded · 278k open
MT SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Montana Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Montana is an open seat with Steve Daines retiring, but the market prices it as a safe Republican hold — the state has moved decisively red at the federal level since its last competitive Senate race. The open-seat framing adds primary intrigue without much general-election doubt; the contract sits firmly Republican and moves on who wins the nomination, not November.
Seat held by Steve Daines (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Kurt Alme leads the Montana Senate market at 91¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 91%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Steve Daines (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Montana seat
Steve Daines
RepublicanOpen seat
Not on the 2026 ballot — the live board below carries the candidates and the current market favorite.
Live Montana Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Montana Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Steve Daines (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Montana Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Montana Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Montana in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Montana contract this cycle.
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