MI Senate
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
6519k contracts traded · 4163k open
MI SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Toss-up · Cook | Lean D · Inside Elections, Sabato
Michigan Senate Race 2026: Abdul El-Sayed vs Mike Rogers Odds
Michigan is the open seat that decides what the national environment is actually worth. Gary Peters retired, the primaries resolved it into Abdul El-Sayed (D) against Mike Rogers (R), and the contract has drifted off its early Democratic lean toward something closer to a coin flip than the rating implies. Two facts make this the most interesting seat on the board: Rogers lost Michigan by about a third of a point in 2024 — the second-narrowest Senate margin in the country, behind only Pennsylvania — so the Republican here is a known quantity with a measured floor, while El-Sayed is the rare statewide nominee running to the left of his own party in a state Trump carried. Open seat, no incumbency anchor, a proven-close Republican against an unproven-statewide Democrat: read the live price as the market re-solving that puzzle in real time, not as a settled lean.
Seat held by Gary Peters (D)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Abdul El-Sayed leads the Michigan Senate market at 68¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 68%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up (Cook Political Report) and Lean D (Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Gary Peters (D) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:52 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Michigan Senate
Abdul El-Sayed
Democrat68¢
Mike Rogers
Republican34¢
Seat held by Gary Peters (D) — open seat.
Live Michigan Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/michigan-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-michigan-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/michigan-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Michigan Senate race: Abdul El-Sayed 68%, Mike Rogers 34%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/michigan-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-michigan-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest Michigan Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | El-Sayed (D) | Rogers (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT / Siena | released Sep 25 | LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions.
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What the combination contract says about this race
Kalshi also lists a four-outcome contract on Michigan's Senate and governor races together. Almost nobody prices it against the two standalone races — and the difference is the interesting part, because it is the market's statement about how tightly the two offices move as one.
- Implied correlation
- +0.34
- Widest disagreement
- +6¢
- Combination book
- 103¢
The combo is pricing a moderate link: the same statewide environment moves both races, but not in lockstep.
A read on correlation, not an arbitrage — every combination book is wide enough that the gap is not a tradeable spread. The four outcomes sum to 103¢ rather than 100¢, and 0¢ of probability sits outside them entirely, since a non-major-party winner in either race resolves all four to No. See the full Michigan board.
Michigan 2026: Senate, Governor, and the combination contract
Michigan also runs an open governorship on the same ballot, and Kalshi quotes a separate contract on the pair of races. The cluster page prices that contract against the product of its two legs — the correlation the market is charging for, which neither race page can show on its own.
Open the Michigan cluster page →Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Michigan Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
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<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/mi/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Michigan Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/michigan-senate">Michigan Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
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<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/mi/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Michigan Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/michigan-senate">Michigan Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
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Michigan Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Abdul El-Sayed (D) at 68¢ — a 68% implied chance — to win the Michigan Senate race; Mike Rogers (R) is at 34¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Toss-up (Cook Political Report) and Lean D (Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Michigan Senate race a toss-up?
Not quite. Abdul El-Sayed is a clear favorite at 68¢, but Mike Rogers at 34¢ — about a 34% chance — means the lead is far from safe. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Michigan Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Michigan Senate race are Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) and Mike Rogers (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Michigan Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Michigan Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Michigan in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Michigan contract this cycle.
Can a progressive win a state Trump carried? What the market says about Abdul El-Sayed.
That question is what the Michigan contract is actually pricing. El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination running to the left of his own party, in a state Trump carried in 2024, and he has never won a statewide race — he lost the 2018 gubernatorial primary to Gretchen Whitmer. The market does not settle that argument with commentary, it settles it with a number: read the live price above as the current implied probability, and watch which direction it drifts as the campaign runs. A contract near 50¢ is the market saying, honestly, that it does not yet know.
How close was Michigan’s last Senate race?
Very — Michigan produced the second-narrowest Senate margin in the country in 2024, behind only Pennsylvania. Mike Rogers lost to Elissa Slotkin by about a third of a point, roughly 19,000 votes out of 5.6 million cast. That cuts two ways for reading this market. It means Rogers is a known quantity with a measured statewide floor rather than an untested candidate, and it means a market pricing Michigan near a coin flip was closer to the result than most forecasters who called it outright.