ME Senate
Maine Senate winner? (2026)
4172k contracts traded · 2156k open
ME SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Lean D
Maine Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Maine is the Republican-held seat Democrats most want, and the market now leans their way: the Democratic side prices in the mid-60s with Susan Collins — a survivor of cycles that buried other moderates — trading as the underdog in her own state for the first time in years. A blue-leaning presidential state finally looks to be pulling the seat with it. Read the live price against the national environment; if it snaps back toward even, it’s Collins’ personal brand doing the work.
Seat held by Susan Collins (R)running
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Troy Jackson leads the Maine Senate market at 68¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 68%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Susan Collins (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Maine seat
Susan Collins
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Maine Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Maine Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Susan Collins (Republican) and rated lean d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Maine Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Maine Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Maine in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Maine contract this cycle.
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