ME Senate
Maine Senate winner? (2026)
3235k contracts traded · 1712k open
ME SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Toss-up
Maine Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Maine is the Republican-held seat Democrats most want, and the contract reflects it. Susan Collins has survived cycles that buried other moderates, but a blue-leaning presidential state keeps this race inside toss-up territory on the board. The market prices Collins’ personal brand against the state’s partisan gravity — when the number drifts, it’s usually the national environment doing the pulling, not a single headline.
Seat held by Susan Collins (R)running
Who holds the Maine seat
Susan Collins
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Maine Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Maine Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Susan Collins (Republican) and rated toss-up; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Maine Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Maine Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Maine in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Maine contract this cycle.
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