ME Senate
Maine Senate winner? (2026)
8492k contracts traded · 3387k open
ME SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Toss-up · Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato
Maine Senate Race 2026: Troy Jackson vs Susan Collins Odds
Maine is the Republican-held seat Democrats most want: Susan Collins is the only Republican senator on the 2026 ballot in a state Kamala Harris carried. Graham Platner won the Democratic primary and withdrew July 10; a party convention then chose Troy Jackson to face her. Four polls taken in the second half of September run from Collins +3 to Jackson +5, and the latest, CBS News/YouGov (Sept. 23–Oct. 1), has it tied 50–50. All three major forecasters still rate the race a toss-up, while the market leans Jackson, a modest gap rather than a split. The calendar is now the story: early voting opened Oct. 5, and the two are scheduled to debate four times, on Oct. 6, 8, 13 and 15. Maine counts federal general elections by ranked-choice ballot, so the second choices of third-party and write-in voters can settle a close race. Read the live price below against the debates and those polls.
Seat held by Susan Collins (R)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Troy Jackson leads the Maine Senate market at 56¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 56%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Susan Collins (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 4:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Maine Senate
Troy Jackson
Democrat56¢
Susan Collins
Republican43¢
Seat held by Susan Collins (R) — incumbent.
Live Maine Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/maine-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-maine-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/maine-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Maine Senate race: Troy Jackson 57%, Susan Collins 43%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/maine-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-maine-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest Maine Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-06 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News / YouGov | Sep 23–Oct 1 | LV | 50% | 50% | Tied |
| UMass Lowell / YouGov | released Sep 24 | 650 LV | 48% | 43% | D+5 |
| AARP (Fabrizio Ward / Impact Research) | Sep 20–22 | 982 LV · ±3.1 | 50% | 47% | D+3 |
| NYT / Press Herald / Siena | Sep 15–22 | 619 RV · ±4.9 | 46% | 49% | R+3 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions. Includes leaners.
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What the combination contract says about this race
Kalshi also lists a four-outcome contract on Maine's Senate and governor races together. Almost nobody prices it against the two standalone races — and the difference is the interesting part, because it is the market's statement about how tightly the two offices move as one.
- Implied correlation
- +0.20
- Widest disagreement
- +4¢
- Combination book
- 104¢
The combo is pricing a moderate link: the same statewide environment moves both races, but not in lockstep.
A read on correlation, not an arbitrage — every combination book is wide enough that the gap is not a tradeable spread. The four outcomes sum to 104¢ rather than 100¢, and 2¢ of probability sits outside them entirely, since a non-major-party winner in either race resolves all four to No.
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Maine Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Troy Jackson (D) at 56¢ — a 56% implied chance — to win the Maine Senate race; Susan Collins (R) is at 43¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Maine Senate race a toss-up?
Yes, by the market’s read: the favorite, Troy Jackson, trades at 56¢, inside the 40–60¢ band where a few points of national environment decide it. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Maine Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Maine Senate race are Troy Jackson (Democrat) and Susan Collins (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Maine Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Maine Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Maine in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Maine contract this cycle.