LA Senate
Louisiana Senate winner? (2026)
71k contracts traded · 54k open
LA SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections
Louisiana Senate Race 2026: Jamie Davis vs Julia Letlow Odds
Louisiana is an open seat by way of a primary, not a retirement: Bill Cassidy lost the state’s first closed party primary, and Julia Letlow won the Republican runoff to face Democrat Jamie Davis in November. The forecasters rate it a safe Republican hold, and the useful question is whether the market agrees — compare the live price above with the ratings. The upheaval happened inside the Republican Party, so the general-election contract measures only whether swapping the incumbent for the nominee left any upset room in a state this red.
Seat held by Bill Cassidy (R)lost renomination — Julia Letlow (R) is the nominee — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of September 27, 2026, Julia Letlow leads the Louisiana Senate market at 91¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 91%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Bill Cassidy (R) — lost renomination.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Sep 27, 7:00 PM UTC · refreshed every 15 minutes through Election Day.
Who holds the Louisiana seat
Bill Cassidy
RepublicanLost renomination
Not on the 2026 ballot — the live board below carries the candidates and the current market favorite.
Live Louisiana Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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Louisiana Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
As of September 27, 2026, Kalshi prices Julia Letlow (R) at 91¢ — a 91% implied chance — to win the Louisiana Senate race; Jamie Davis (D) is at 9¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Louisiana Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Julia Letlow at 91¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 9%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates every 15 minutes.
Who is running for Louisiana Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Louisiana Senate race are Jamie Davis (Democrat) and Julia Letlow (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-27. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Louisiana Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Louisiana Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Louisiana in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Louisiana contract this cycle.