AL Senate
Alabama Senate winner? (2026)
8.9k contracts traded · 5.8k open
AL SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Alabama Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Alabama is an open seat now that Tommy Tuberville is running for governor, but the market still prices it as a safe Republican hold — the state’s deep partisan lean swamps the usual open-seat uncertainty. The action here is in the Republican primary rather than the general; the contract barely moves for November, so the edge, if any, is in how decisively the eventual nominee gets priced.
Seat held by Tommy Tuberville (R)not_running (running for AL Governor) — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Barry Moore leads the Alabama Senate market at 96¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 96%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Tommy Tuberville (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Alabama seat
Tommy Tuberville
RepublicanOpen seat
Not on the 2026 ballot — the live board below carries the candidates and the current market favorite.
Live Alabama Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Alabama Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Tommy Tuberville (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Alabama Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Alabama Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Alabama in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Alabama contract this cycle.
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