AL Senate
Alabama Senate winner? (2026)
13k contracts traded · 8.3k open
AL SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections
Alabama Senate Race 2026: Everett Wess vs Barry Moore Odds
Alabama is an open seat now that Tommy Tuberville is running for governor, but the market still prices it as a safe Republican hold — the state’s deep partisan lean swamps the usual open-seat uncertainty. The action here is in the Republican primary rather than the general; the contract barely moves for November, so the edge, if any, is in how decisively the eventual nominee gets priced.
Seat held by Tommy Tuberville (R)not_running (running for AL Governor) — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Barry Moore leads the Alabama Senate market at 97¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 97%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Tommy Tuberville (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:07 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Alabama Senate
Everett Wess
Democrat3¢
Barry Moore
Republican97¢
Seat held by Tommy Tuberville (R) — open seat.
Live Alabama Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/alabama-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-alabama-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Alabama Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Alabama Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Barry Moore (R) at 97¢ — a 97% implied chance — to win the Alabama Senate race; Everett Wess (D) is at 3¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Alabama Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Barry Moore at 97¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 3%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Alabama Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Alabama Senate race are Everett Wess (Democrat) and Barry Moore (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Alabama Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Alabama Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Alabama in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Alabama contract this cycle.