RI Senate
Rhode Island Senate winner? (2026)
16k contracts traded · 6.7k open
RI SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe D
Rhode Island Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Rhode Island is a safe Democratic hold with Jack Reed running for re-election. The market treats it as a formality; the seat is among the safest on the board, and the contract is best read as a near-certainty benchmark against which the genuine battlegrounds are calibrated.
Seat held by Jack Reed (D)running
Quick Answer
As of September 11, 2026, Jack Reed leads the Rhode Island Senate market at 99¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 99%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jack Reed (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Rhode Island seat
Jack Reed
DemocratIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Rhode Island Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Rhode Island Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
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Rhode Island Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Jack Reed (Democrat) and rated safe d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Rhode Island Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Rhode Island Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Rhode Island in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Rhode Island contract this cycle.
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