RI Senate
Rhode Island Senate winner? (2026)
25k contracts traded · 13k open
RI SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
Rhode Island Senate Race 2026: Jack Reed vs Raymond McKay Odds
Rhode Island is a safe Democratic hold with Jack Reed running for re-election. The market treats it as a formality; the seat is among the safest on the board, and the contract is best read as a near-certainty benchmark against which the genuine battlegrounds are calibrated.
Seat held by Jack Reed (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Jack Reed leads the Rhode Island Senate market at 98¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 98%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jack Reed (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 13, 1:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Rhode Island Senate
Jack Reed
Democrat98¢
Raymond McKay
Republican2¢
Seat held by Jack Reed (D) — incumbent.
Live Rhode Island Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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Rhode Island Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Jack Reed (D) at 98¢ — a 98% implied chance — to win the Rhode Island Senate race; Raymond McKay (R) is at 2¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Rhode Island Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Jack Reed at 98¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 2%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Rhode Island Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Rhode Island Senate race are Jack Reed (Democrat) and Raymond McKay (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Rhode Island Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Rhode Island Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Rhode Island in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Rhode Island contract this cycle.