OR Senate
Oregon Senate winner? (2026)
12k contracts traded · 8.4k open
OR SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
Oregon Senate Race 2026: Jeff Merkley vs David Brock Smith Odds
Oregon is a safe Democratic hold with Jeff Merkley running for re-election, and the market prices it as settled. Oregon’s federal races have been reliably blue; the contract sits deep on the Democratic side, and the only scenario that moves it is a wave big enough to threaten lean-blue seats — which the price says is not the base case.
Seat held by Jeff Merkley (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Jeff Merkley leads the Oregon Senate market at 98¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 98%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jeff Merkley (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 13, 12:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Oregon Senate
Jeff Merkley
Democrat98¢
David Brock Smith
Republican2¢
Seat held by Jeff Merkley (D) — incumbent.
Live Oregon Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic — free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
Download the PNG or paste this into your page:
<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/oregon-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-oregon-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/oregon-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Oregon Senate race: Jeff Merkley 98%, David Brock Smith 2%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/oregon-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-oregon-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Oregon Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
Article width · 1200×628
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/or/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Oregon Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/oregon-senate">Oregon Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Sidebar · 300×600
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/or/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Oregon Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/oregon-senate">Oregon Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every race where the markets disagree, the moment they do
Pro adds the cross-market layer to every race and deadline: the full Thee Oracle dashboard, the full Kalshi-vs-Polymarket price-gap board, and edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens.
Claim 26% off →
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Oregon Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Jeff Merkley (D) at 98¢ — a 98% implied chance — to win the Oregon Senate race; David Brock Smith (R) is at 2¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Oregon Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Jeff Merkley at 98¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 2%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Oregon Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Oregon Senate race are Jeff Merkley (Democrat) and David Brock Smith (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Oregon Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Oregon Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Oregon in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Oregon contract this cycle.