OR Senate
Oregon Senate winner? (2026)
6.8k contracts traded · 5.3k open
OR SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe D
Oregon Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Oregon is a safe Democratic hold with Jeff Merkley running for re-election, and the market prices it as settled. Oregon’s federal races have been reliably blue; the contract sits deep on the Democratic side, and the only scenario that moves it is a wave big enough to threaten lean-blue seats — which the price says is not the base case.
Seat held by Jeff Merkley (D)running
Quick Answer
As of August 28, 2026, Jeff Merkley leads the Oregon Senate market at 98¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 98%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jeff Merkley (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Oregon seat
Jeff Merkley
DemocratIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Oregon Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Oregon Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Jeff Merkley (Democrat) and rated safe d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Oregon Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Oregon Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Oregon in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Oregon contract this cycle.
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