GA Senate
Georgia Senate winner? (2026)
1675k contracts traded · 1055k open
GA SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Likely D · Cook, Sabato | Lean D · Inside Elections
Georgia Senate Race 2026: Jon Ossoff vs Mike Collins Odds
Georgia was the marquee toss-up on paper, but the market has moved: incumbent Jon Ossoff has pulled to a clear favorite against Republican nominee Mike Collins, and the contract now prices this as a likely Democratic hold rather than a coin flip. That can change — Georgia is one narrow national swing from tightening again — so read the live price as the market’s real-time read, not a settled verdict. When a supposed toss-up prices one candidate as a clear favorite, the market is telling you the matchup, not just the map, is doing the work.
Seat held by Jon Ossoff (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Jon Ossoff leads the Georgia Senate market at 95¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 95%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean D (Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jon Ossoff (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 6:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff
Democrat95¢
Mike Collins
Republican5¢
Seat held by Jon Ossoff (D) — incumbent.
Live Georgia Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/georgia-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-georgia-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/georgia-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Georgia Senate race: Jon Ossoff 95%, Mike Collins 5%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/georgia-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-georgia-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest Georgia Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ossoff (D) | Collins (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights | Sep 14–16 | 645 LV · ±4.3 | 48.2% | 44.4% | D+3.8 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions.
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Georgia Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Jon Ossoff (D) at 95¢ — a 95% implied chance — to win the Georgia Senate race; Mike Collins (R) is at 5¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Likely D (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean D (Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Georgia Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Jon Ossoff at 95¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 5%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Georgia Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Georgia Senate race are Jon Ossoff (Democrat) and Mike Collins (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Georgia Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Georgia Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Georgia in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Georgia contract this cycle.