GA Senate
Georgia Senate winner? (2026)
1154k contracts traded · 800k open
GA SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
Georgia Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Georgia was the marquee toss-up on paper, but the market has moved: incumbent Jon Ossoff has pulled to a clear favorite against Republican nominee Mike Collins, and the contract now prices this as a likely Democratic hold rather than a coin flip. That can change — Georgia is one narrow national swing from tightening again — so read the live price as the market’s real-time read, not a settled verdict. When a supposed toss-up prices a candidate in the 80s, the market is telling you the matchup, not just the map, is doing the work.
Seat held by Jon Ossoff (D)running
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Jon Ossoff leads the Georgia Senate market at 92¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 92%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jon Ossoff (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Georgia seat
Jon Ossoff
DemocratIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Georgia Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Georgia Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Jon Ossoff (Democrat) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Georgia Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Georgia Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Georgia in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Georgia contract this cycle.
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