AR Senate
Arkansas Senate winner? (2026)
54k contracts traded · 46k open
AR SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Arkansas Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Arkansas prices as a safe Republican hold with Tom Cotton running for re-election, and the market rarely blinks. There is little general-election edge in a seat this lopsided; the contract is most useful as a benchmark — a clean read on what “safe” looks like on the board, against which the genuine toss-ups can be measured.
Seat held by Tom Cotton (R)running
Quick Answer
As of August 28, 2026, Tom Cotton leads the Arkansas Senate market at 92¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 92%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Tom Cotton (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Arkansas seat
Tom Cotton
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Arkansas Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Arkansas Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Tom Cotton (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Arkansas Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Arkansas Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Arkansas in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Arkansas contract this cycle.
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