AR Senate
Arkansas Senate winner? (2026)
216k contracts traded · 169k open
AR SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections
Arkansas Senate Race 2026: Hallie Shoffner vs Tom Cotton Odds
Arkansas prices as a safe Republican hold with Tom Cotton running for re-election, and the market rarely blinks. There is little general-election edge in a seat this lopsided; the contract is most useful as a benchmark — a clean read on what “safe” looks like on the board, against which the genuine toss-ups can be measured.
Seat held by Tom Cotton (R)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Tom Cotton leads the Arkansas Senate market at 94¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 94%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Tom Cotton (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:07 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Arkansas Senate
Hallie Shoffner
Democrat6¢
Tom Cotton
Republican94¢
Seat held by Tom Cotton (R) — incumbent.
Live Arkansas Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/arkansas-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-arkansas-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Arkansas Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Tom Cotton (R) at 94¢ — a 94% implied chance — to win the Arkansas Senate race; Hallie Shoffner (D) is at 6¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Arkansas Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Tom Cotton at 94¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 6%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Arkansas Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Arkansas Senate race are Hallie Shoffner (Democrat) and Tom Cotton (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Arkansas Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Arkansas Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Arkansas in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Arkansas contract this cycle.