NH Senate
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2026)
1928k contracts traded · 1118k open
NH SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Lean D · Cook, Sabato | Toss-up · Inside Elections
New Hampshire Senate Race 2026: Chris Pappas vs John E. Sununu Odds
New Hampshire is an open seat after Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement, and it is one of the widest market-versus-pundit gaps on the board: forecasters rate it closer than the market does. Their case is New Hampshire’s thin margins, where a few points of national environment can swing an open seat; the market’s case is the live price above. Read the two side by side — this is a race where one of them will look badly wrong in November.
Seat held by Jeanne Shaheen (D)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Chris Pappas leads the New Hampshire Senate market at 90¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 90%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Toss-up (Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jeanne Shaheen (D) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:00 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for New Hampshire Senate
Chris Pappas
Democrat90¢
John E. Sununu
Republican11¢
Seat held by Jeanne Shaheen (D) — open seat.
Live New Hampshire Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/new-hampshire-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-new-hampshire-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/new-hampshire-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race: Chris Pappas 90%, John E. Sununu 11%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/new-hampshire-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-new-hampshire-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest New Hampshire Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Pappas (D) | Sununu (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYT / Siena | Sep 15–22 | LV | 50% | 45% | D+5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | Sep 8–10 | LV | 45% | 34% | D+11 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions.
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New Hampshire Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Chris Pappas (D) at 90¢ — a 90% implied chance — to win the New Hampshire Senate race; John E. Sununu (R) is at 11¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Lean D (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Toss-up (Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the New Hampshire Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Chris Pappas at 90¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 10%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for New Hampshire Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the New Hampshire Senate race are Chris Pappas (Democrat) and John E. Sununu (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the New Hampshire Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the New Hampshire Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in New Hampshire in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the New Hampshire contract this cycle.