WY Senate
Wyoming Senate winner? (2026)
25k contracts traded · 18k open
WY SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R · Cook, Inside Elections
Wyoming Senate Race 2026: James Byrd vs Harriet Hageman Odds
Wyoming is an open seat with Cynthia Lummis retiring, but the market prices it as a safe Republican hold in the reddest state on the board. The contest is entirely in the Republican primary to succeed her; the general-election contract barely moves, and the interesting pricing is which successor the market backs rather than which party wins.
Seat held by Cynthia Lummis (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Harriet Hageman leads the Wyoming Senate market at 98¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 98%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Cynthia Lummis (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 5:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Wyoming Senate
James Byrd
Democrat2¢
Harriet Hageman
Republican98¢
Seat held by Cynthia Lummis (R) — open seat.
Live Wyoming Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/wyoming-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-wyoming-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/wyoming-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Wyoming Senate race: Harriet Hageman 98%, James Byrd 3%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/wyoming-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-wyoming-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Wyoming Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Harriet Hageman (R) at 98¢ — a 98% implied chance — to win the Wyoming Senate race; James Byrd (D) is at 2¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Wyoming Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Harriet Hageman at 98¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 2%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Wyoming Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Wyoming Senate race are James Byrd (Democrat) and Harriet Hageman (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Wyoming Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Wyoming Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Wyoming in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Wyoming contract this cycle.