WY Senate
Wyoming Senate winner? (2026)
18k contracts traded · 12k open
WY SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Wyoming Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Wyoming is an open seat with Cynthia Lummis retiring, but the market prices it as a safe Republican hold in the reddest state on the board. The contest is entirely in the Republican primary to succeed her; the general-election contract barely moves, and the interesting pricing is which successor the market backs rather than which party wins.
Seat held by Cynthia Lummis (R)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Harriet Hageman leads the Wyoming Senate market at 98¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 98%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Cynthia Lummis (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Wyoming seat
Cynthia Lummis
RepublicanOpen seat
Not on the 2026 ballot — the live board below carries the candidates and the current market favorite.
Live Wyoming Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Wyoming Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Cynthia Lummis (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Wyoming Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Wyoming Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Wyoming in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Wyoming contract this cycle.
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