SC Senate
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
2810k contracts traded · 1922k open
SC SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Likely R · Cook, Inside Elections
South Carolina Senate Race 2026: Annie Andrews vs Darline Graham Odds
South Carolina became an open contest in July: Lindsey Graham died July 11, Governor McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to the seat, and she then won the Aug. 25 special Republican runoff. Democrat Annie Andrews is her November opponent. The polls say it is close — Trafalgar (Sept. 23–25, 1,087 likely voters, margin of error about 2.9 points) had Graham ahead 43.4–42.3 — in a state Republicans usually carry comfortably. Compare the live price below with that poll: how far apart they are is the question this page tracks.
Seat held by Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026) (R)running (appointee — won the Aug 25 special runoff after Lindsey Graham died July 11)
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Darline Graham leads the South Carolina Senate market at 86¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 86%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Darline Graham Nordone (R) — appointed incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 12:07 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for South Carolina Senate
Annie Andrews
Democrat15¢
Darline Graham
Republican86¢
Seat held by Darline Graham Nordone (R) — appointed incumbent.
Live South Carolina Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/south-carolina-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-south-carolina-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/south-carolina-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 South Carolina Senate race: Darline Graham 86%, Annie Andrews 15%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/south-carolina-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-south-carolina-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest South Carolina Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Andrews (D) | Graham (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | Sep 23–25 | 1,087 LV · ±2.9 | 42.3% | 43.4% | R+1.1 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions.
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South Carolina Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Darline Graham (R) at 86¢ — a 86% implied chance — to win the South Carolina Senate race; Annie Andrews (D) is at 15¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Likely R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the South Carolina Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Darline Graham at 86¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 14%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for South Carolina Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the South Carolina Senate race are Annie Andrews (Democrat) and Darline Graham (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the South Carolina Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in South Carolina in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the South Carolina contract this cycle.