SC Senate
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
839k contracts traded · 535k open
SC SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely R
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
South Carolina went from sleepy to singular overnight: Lindsey Graham died in July 2026, four months before the election, and the seat became a true open contest — Governor McMaster appointed Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to serve out the term while a fast-tracked special primary rebuilt the November ballot. The market still prices a Republican hold as the clear favorite in a state this red, but an open seat with a compressed nominating calendar carries fatter tails than a settled incumbent defense, and the contract reprices on every filing and endorsement. A Democratic win remains a deep tail; the live action is the Republican nomination sprint and how the market prices a field assembled in weeks instead of years.
Seat held by Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026) (R)Graham died July 11 — OPEN SEAT; special primary Aug 11 sets the ballot
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Darline Graham leads the South Carolina Senate market at 88¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 88%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely R, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Darline Graham Nordone (R) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the South Carolina seat
Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026)
RepublicanOpen seat
Not on the 2026 ballot — the live board below carries the candidates and the current market favorite.
Live South Carolina Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
South Carolina Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Darline Graham Nordone (appointed 2026) (Republican) and rated likely r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the South Carolina Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in South Carolina in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the South Carolina contract this cycle.
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