SC Senate
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
479k contracts traded · 334k open
SC SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
South Carolina is a safe Republican hold with Lindsey Graham running for re-election, and the market prices it as settled. Graham has drawn primary challenges before, so the intrigue that exists lives in the Republican nomination market; the general-election contract sits firmly Republican and treats a Democratic upset as a deep tail.
Seat held by Lindsey Graham (R)running
Who holds the South Carolina seat
Lindsey Graham
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live South Carolina Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
South Carolina Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Lindsey Graham (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the South Carolina Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the South Carolina Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in South Carolina in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the South Carolina contract this cycle.
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