SD Senate
South Dakota Senate winner? (2026)
212k contracts traded Β· 162k open
SD SENATE 2026Live Β· updated hourlyForecasters: Safe R Β· Cook, Inside Elections
South Dakota Senate Race 2026: Mike Rounds vs Brian Bengs Odds
South Dakota is a safe Republican hold with Mike Rounds running for re-election. The market gives it little attention; the state is reliably red at the federal level, and the contract is a calibration point on the board β what a settled Republican hold looks like β more than a trade.
Seat held by Mike Rounds (R)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Mike Rounds leads the South Dakota Senate market at 94Β’ β real money putting the implied probability at 94%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Mike Rounds (R) β incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 13, 1:07 AM UTC Β· refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for South Dakota Senate
Mike Rounds
Republican94Β’
Brian Bengs
Independent7Β’
Seat held by Mike Rounds (R) β incumbent.
Live South Dakota Senate Market
Kalshi Β· CFTC-regulated Β· real moneyTrade β
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the marketβs implied probability β a 58Β’ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50Β’, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic β free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/south-dakota-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-south-dakota-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/south-dakota-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 South Dakota Senate race: Mike Rounds 94%, Brian Bengs 7%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/south-dakota-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-south-dakota-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox β every race's live price, free
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A live card locked to the South Dakota Senate race β not βwhichever race is closest todayβ β for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
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South Dakota Senate 2026 β frequently asked
Who is favored to win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Mike Rounds (R) at 94Β’ β a 94% implied chance β to win the South Dakota Senate race; Brian Bengs (I) is at 7Β’. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the marketβs probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe R (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the South Dakota Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Mike Rounds at 94Β’, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 6%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50Β’. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for South Dakota Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the South Dakota Senate race are Mike Rounds (Republican) and Brian Bengs (independent), per published primary results as of 2026-09-28. No Democrat on the general ballot β the nominee withdrew and was not replaced; Brian Bengs runs as an independent. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the South Dakota Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the South Dakota Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesnβt. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in South Dakota in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 β Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and itβs the best base rate for how much to trust the South Dakota contract this cycle.