OH Senate (Special)
Ohio Senate winner? (2026 Special)
6664k contracts traded · 4829k open
OH SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Toss-up · Cook, Inside Elections, Sabato
Ohio Senate Race 2026: Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted Odds
Ohio is a special election for the seat JD Vance vacated, now held by appointee Jon Husted — and the market has treated it as a genuine contest despite Ohio’s recent red lean. An appointee defending his first statewide run under a special-election spotlight is exactly the kind of thin-incumbency situation the board reprices hard. It is one of the highest-volume Senate contracts on the whole 2026 board, so the live price is a real signal, not thin-market noise.
Seat held by Jon Husted (appointed 2025) (R)running (appointee — Vance seat)
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Sherrod Brown leads the Ohio Senate market at 60¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 60%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jon Husted (R) — appointed incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 10:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Ohio Senate
Sherrod Brown
Democrat60¢
Jon Husted
Republican41¢
Seat held by Jon Husted (R) — appointed incumbent.
Live Ohio Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Use this graphic — free with credit (CC BY 4.0)
Download the PNG or paste this into your page:
<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/ohio-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-ohio-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/ohio-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Ohio Senate race: Sherrod Brown 60%, Jon Husted 41%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/ohio-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-ohio-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest Ohio Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-05 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Brown (D) | Husted (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | Sep 22–23 | 1,115 LV · ±3 | 46% | 43% | D+3 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions.
Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
What the combination contract says about this race
Kalshi also lists a four-outcome contract on Ohio's Senate and governor races together. Almost nobody prices it against the two standalone races — and the difference is the interesting part, because it is the market's statement about how tightly the two offices move as one.
- Implied correlation
- +0.51
- Widest disagreement
- +15¢
- Combination book
- 105¢
The combo is pricing the two races as strongly linked — a state-level swing that carries both offices together.
A read on correlation, not an arbitrage — every combination book is wide enough that the gap is not a tradeable spread. The four outcomes sum to 105¢ rather than 100¢, and 0¢ of probability sits outside them entirely, since a non-major-party winner in either race resolves all four to No.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Ohio Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
Article width · 1200×628
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/oh/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Ohio Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/ohio-senate">Ohio Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Sidebar · 300×600
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/oh/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Ohio Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/ohio-senate">Ohio Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every race where the markets disagree, the moment they do
Pro adds the cross-market layer to every race and deadline: the full Thee Oracle dashboard, the full Kalshi-vs-Polymarket price-gap board, and edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens.
Claim 26% off →
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Ohio Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Sherrod Brown (D) at 60¢ — a 60% implied chance — to win the Ohio Senate race; Jon Husted (R) is at 41¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Ohio Senate race a toss-up?
Yes, by the market’s read: the favorite, Sherrod Brown, trades at 60¢, inside the 40–60¢ band where a few points of national environment decide it. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Ohio Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Ohio Senate race are Sherrod Brown (Democrat) and Jon Husted (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Ohio Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Ohio Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Ohio in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Ohio contract this cycle.