OH Senate (Special)
Ohio Senate winner? (2026 Special)
2359k contracts traded · 1691k open
OH SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Toss-up
Ohio Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Ohio is a special election for the seat JD Vance vacated, now held by appointee Jon Husted — and the market has it as a genuine toss-up, with Husted pricing right around 50¢ despite Ohio’s recent red lean. An appointee defending his first statewide run under a special-election spotlight is exactly the kind of thin-incumbency situation the board reprices hard. It is one of the highest-volume Senate contracts on the whole 2026 board, so the coin-flip price is a real signal, not thin-market noise.
Seat held by Jon Husted (appointed 2025) (R)running (appointee — Vance seat)
Quick Answer
As of August 28, 2026, Sherrod Brown leads the Ohio Senate market at 54¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 54%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Jon Husted (R) — appointed incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Ohio seat
Jon Husted
RepublicanAppointed incumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Photo: U.S. Senate (public domain)
Live Ohio Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Ohio Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Jon Husted (appointed 2025) (Republican) and rated toss-up; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Ohio Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Ohio Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Ohio in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Ohio contract this cycle.
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