CO Senate
Colorado Senate winner? (2026)
33k contracts traded · 25k open
CO SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
Colorado Senate Race 2026: John Hickenlooper vs Mark Baisley Odds
Colorado is a safe Democratic hold with John Hickenlooper running again, and the market treats it accordingly. The seat has become reliably blue at the federal level, so the contract sits deep on the Democratic side; the only real repricing risk is a national wave large enough to put even lean-blue states in play — which the price is quietly telling you it does not expect.
Seat held by John Hickenlooper (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, John Hickenlooper leads the Colorado Senate market at 99¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 99%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by John Hickenlooper (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 6:37 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Colorado Senate
John Hickenlooper
Democrat99¢
Mark Baisley
Republican1¢
Seat held by John Hickenlooper (D) — incumbent.
Live Colorado Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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Colorado Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
As of October 15, 2026, Kalshi prices John Hickenlooper (D) at 99¢ — a 99% implied chance — to win the Colorado Senate race; Mark Baisley (R) is at 1¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Colorado Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices John Hickenlooper at 99¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 1%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Colorado Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Colorado Senate race are John Hickenlooper (Democrat) and Mark Baisley (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Colorado Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Colorado Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Colorado in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Colorado contract this cycle.