TX Senate
Texas Senate winner? (2026)
25584k contracts traded · 17895k open
TX SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Toss-up · Cook, Sabato | Lean R · Inside Elections
Texas Senate Race 2026: James Talarico vs Ken Paxton Odds
Texas is an open seat: Ken Paxton beat incumbent John Cornyn in the May Republican runoff and now faces Democrat James Talarico, in a state where Republicans have not lost a statewide race since 1994. The market has picked a side the forecasters have not — in early October it prices Talarico as the clear favorite, while the forecaster ratings still sit at toss-up or leaning Republican. The polls agree on the direction but not the size: all four independent polls fielded in the second half of September had Talarico ahead, by 1 to 6 points. Republicans are answering with money and Trump — a super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune has put $131 million into Texas, and Trump rallied for Paxton in Denton on Oct. 1 — while Paxton has not agreed to any of the debates Talarico accepted. Early voting runs Oct. 19–30; read the live price below against the ratings, because the gap between the market and the forecasters is the whole question.
Seat held by John Cornyn (R)lost renomination — Ken Paxton (R) is the nominee
Quick Answer
As of October 11, 2026, James Talarico leads the Texas Senate market at 63¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 63%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean R (Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by John Cornyn (R) — lost renomination.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 2:52 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Texas Senate
James Talarico
Democrat63¢
Ken Paxton
Republican38¢
Seat held by John Cornyn (R) — lost renomination.
Live Texas Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/texas-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-texas-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/texas-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Texas Senate race: James Talarico 63%, Ken Paxton 38%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/texas-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-texas-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Latest Texas Senate polls
Checked 2026-10-04 · compare with the live price above| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Talarico (D) | Paxton (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News | Sep 24–28 | 881 LV · ±3 | 51% | 49% | D+2 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Sep 19–22 | 1,007 LV · ±3.6 | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| Marist | Sep 17–20 | 1,139 RV · ±4.4 | 50% | 44% | D+6 |
| Texas Southern University | Sep 15–19 | 1,800 LV · ±2.31 | 47% | 46% | D+1 |
LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. A poll is a snapshot with a margin of error; the market price above is a live probability, so the two answer different questions. Libertarian Brown 3%.
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Texas Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
As of October 11, 2026, Kalshi prices James Talarico (D) at 63¢ — a 63% implied chance — to win the Texas Senate race; Ken Paxton (R) is at 38¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean R (Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Texas Senate race a toss-up?
Not quite. James Talarico is a clear favorite at 63¢, but Ken Paxton at 38¢ — about a 38% chance — means the lead is far from safe. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Texas Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Texas Senate race are James Talarico (Democrat) and Ken Paxton (Republican), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Texas Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Texas Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Texas in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Texas contract this cycle.