MA Senate
Massachusetts Senate winner? (2026)
37k contracts traded · 34k open
MA SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
Massachusetts Senate Race 2026: Ed Markey vs John Deaton Odds
Massachusetts is a safe Democratic hold with Ed Markey running for re-election. The market prices it as a formality; the only genuine contest a trader would watch is a Democratic primary challenge, which shows up in the nomination market rather than the general. As a general-election contract it is a calibration anchor for what near-certainty looks like on the board.
Seat held by Ed Markey (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Ed Markey leads the Massachusetts Senate market at 98¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 98%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Ed Markey (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 8:37 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Massachusetts Senate
Ed Markey
Democrat98¢
John Deaton
Republican2¢
Seat held by Ed Markey (D) — incumbent.
Live Massachusetts Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/massachusetts-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-massachusetts-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/massachusetts-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race: Ed Markey 98%, John Deaton 2%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/massachusetts-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-massachusetts-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Massachusetts Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Ed Markey (D) at 98¢ — a 98% implied chance — to win the Massachusetts Senate race; John Deaton (R) is at 2¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Massachusetts Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Ed Markey at 98¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 2%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Massachusetts Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Massachusetts Senate race are Ed Markey (Democrat) and John Deaton (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Massachusetts Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Massachusetts Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Massachusetts in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Massachusetts contract this cycle.