MA Senate
Massachusetts Senate winner? (2026)
11k contracts traded · 9.0k open
MA SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe D
Massachusetts Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Massachusetts is a safe Democratic hold with Ed Markey running for re-election. The market prices it as a formality; the only genuine contest a trader would watch is a Democratic primary challenge, which shows up in the nomination market rather than the general. As a general-election contract it is a calibration anchor for what near-certainty looks like on the board.
Seat held by Ed Markey (D)running
Quick Answer
As of September 14, 2026, Ed Markey leads the Massachusetts Senate market at 98¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 98%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Ed Markey (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Massachusetts seat
Ed Markey
DemocratIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Massachusetts Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Embed this race on your site
A live card locked to the Massachusetts Senate race — not “whichever race is closest today” — for a state paper, a newsletter or a campaign-watcher blog. Free; the credit line is the only ask. Prices refresh every 15 minutes.
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<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/ma/hero" width="1200" height="628" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Massachusetts Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/massachusetts-senate">Massachusetts Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
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<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/midterms-race/ma/sidebar" width="300" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" title="Massachusetts Senate 2026 — live prediction market prices — PredictionMarketsPicks"></iframe> <p><a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/massachusetts-senate">Massachusetts Senate race odds</a> by PredictionMarketsPicks</p>
Massachusetts Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Ed Markey (Democrat) and rated safe d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Massachusetts Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Massachusetts Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Massachusetts in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Massachusetts contract this cycle.
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