NE Senate
Nebraska Senate winner? (2026)
2378k contracts traded · 1341k open
NE SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Likely R · Cook, Sabato | Lean R · Inside Elections
Nebraska Senate Race 2026: Pete Ricketts vs Dan Osborn Odds
Nebraska has tightened into a lean, not a lock: Pete Ricketts defends against independent Dan Osborn, whose anti-incumbent coalition ran competitively here last cycle, and the market prices Ricketts as a favorite, not the safe-Republican lock the map would suggest. Osborn is the live tail — a genuine independent threat a straight partisan rating flattens. This is the one red-state seat where the challenger, not the environment, is the story.
Seat held by Pete Ricketts (R)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Pete Ricketts leads the Nebraska Senate market at 73¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 73%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely R (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean R (Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Pete Ricketts (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:07 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Nebraska Senate
Pete Ricketts
Republican73¢
Dan Osborn
Independent28¢
Seat held by Pete Ricketts (R) — incumbent.
Live Nebraska Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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Nebraska Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Pete Ricketts (R) at 73¢ — a 73% implied chance — to win the Nebraska Senate race; Dan Osborn (I) is at 28¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Likely R (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean R (Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Nebraska Senate race a toss-up?
Not quite. Pete Ricketts is a clear favorite at 73¢, but Dan Osborn at 28¢ — about a 28% chance — means the lead is far from safe. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Nebraska Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Nebraska Senate race are Pete Ricketts (Republican) and Dan Osborn (independent), per Ballotpedia’s general-election listing as of 2026-09-23. No Democrat on the general ballot — the primary winner withdrew; Dan Osborn runs as a nonpartisan independent. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Nebraska Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Nebraska Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Nebraska in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Nebraska contract this cycle.