NM Senate
New Mexico Senate winner? (2026)
44k contracts traded · 26k open
NM SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
New Mexico Senate Race 2026: Ben Ray Luján vs Larry E. Marker Odds
New Mexico is a safe Democratic hold with Ben Ray Luján running for re-election, and the market treats it as settled. The state has consolidated blue at the federal level; the contract sits firmly Democratic, and the only repricing risk is a national wave large enough to reach lean-blue Senate seats — which the current price is not backing.
Seat held by Ben Ray Lujan (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Ben Ray Luján leads the New Mexico Senate market at 97¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 97%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Ben Ray Lujan (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:07 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján
Democrat97¢
Larry E. Marker
Republican2¢
Seat held by Ben Ray Lujan (D) — incumbent.
Live New Mexico Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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New Mexico Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Ben Ray Luján (D) at 97¢ — a 97% implied chance — to win the New Mexico Senate race; Larry E. Marker (R) is at 2¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the New Mexico Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Ben Ray Luján at 97¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 3%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for New Mexico Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the New Mexico Senate race are Ben Ray Luján (Democrat) and Larry E. Marker (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the New Mexico Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the New Mexico Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in New Mexico in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the New Mexico contract this cycle.