MN Senate
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
77k contracts traded · 43k open
MN SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
Minnesota Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Minnesota is an open seat after Tina Smith’s retirement, and the market prices it as likely Democratic rather than locked — an open seat in a lean-blue state leaves just enough room for a real contest under the right national environment. The contract reprices around candidate quality and the generic ballot; it is the kind of seat that stays quiet until a wave makes it interesting.
Seat held by Tina Smith (D)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Who holds the Minnesota seat
Tina Smith
DemocratOpen seat
Seat is open in 2026 — the field is still forming; the live board below carries every priced contender.
Live Minnesota Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Minnesota Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Tina Smith (Democrat) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Minnesota Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Minnesota Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Minnesota in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Minnesota contract this cycle.
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