MN Senate
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
321k contracts traded · 258k open
MN SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe D
Minnesota Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Minnesota is an open seat after Tina Smith’s retirement, but open or not, the market prices it as a safe Democratic hold — the Democratic side sits above 90¢. Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the Senate in half a century, and the contract treats the streak as intact. Useful mostly as a calibration anchor for what “safe” looks like on the board; the real contest is the DFL primary, not November.
Seat held by Tina Smith (D)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Peggy Flanagan leads the Minnesota Senate market at 91¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 91%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Tina Smith (D) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Minnesota seat
Tina Smith
DemocratOpen seat
Not on the 2026 ballot — the live board below carries the candidates and the current market favorite.
Live Minnesota Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Minnesota Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Tina Smith (Democrat) and rated safe d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Minnesota Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Minnesota Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Minnesota in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Minnesota contract this cycle.
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