MN Senate
Minnesota Senate winner? (2026)
1750k contracts traded · 1387k open
MN SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Likely D · Cook, Sabato | Lean D · Inside Elections
Minnesota Senate Race 2026: Peggy Flanagan vs Michele Tafoya Odds
Minnesota is an open seat after Tina Smith’s retirement, but open or not, the market prices it as a safe Democratic hold. Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the Senate in half a century, and the contract treats the streak as intact. Useful mostly as a calibration anchor for what “safe” looks like on the board; the real contest is the DFL primary, not November.
Seat held by Tina Smith (D)retiring — OPEN SEAT
Quick Answer
As of October 11, 2026, Peggy Flanagan leads the Minnesota Senate market at 87¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 87%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean D (Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Tina Smith (D) — open seat.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 12:37 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Minnesota Senate
Peggy Flanagan
Democrat87¢
Michele Tafoya
Republican14¢
Seat held by Tina Smith (D) — open seat.
Live Minnesota Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/minnesota-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-minnesota-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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Minnesota Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
As of October 11, 2026, Kalshi prices Peggy Flanagan (D) at 87¢ — a 87% implied chance — to win the Minnesota Senate race; Michele Tafoya (R) is at 14¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Likely D (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Lean D (Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Minnesota Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Peggy Flanagan at 87¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 13%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Minnesota Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Minnesota Senate race are Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) and Michele Tafoya (Republican), per published primary results as of 2026-09-27. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Minnesota Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Minnesota Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Minnesota in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Minnesota contract this cycle.