MS Senate
Mississippi Senate winner? (2026)
91k contracts traded · 77k open
MS SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Mississippi Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Mississippi is a safe Republican hold with Cindy Hyde-Smith running for re-election. The market prices it as settled; Mississippi’s alignment has produced the occasional closer-than-expected result, but the contract treats a genuine upset as a deep tail. Useful mostly as a red-state calibration point on the board.
Seat held by Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)running
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Cindy Hyde-Smith leads the Mississippi Senate market at 93¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 93%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Mississippi seat
Cindy Hyde-Smith
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Mississippi Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Mississippi Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Cindy Hyde-Smith (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Mississippi Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Mississippi Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Mississippi in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Mississippi contract this cycle.
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