KS Senate
Kansas Senate winner? (2026)
3316k contracts traded · 2396k open
KS SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Lean R · Cook, Sabato | Likely R · Inside Elections
Kansas Senate Race 2026: Adam Hamilton vs Roger Marshall Odds
Kansas is a Republican-held seat with Roger Marshall running for re-election. Kansas has flirted with competitive Senate races before, so the useful read is how much upset room each side leaves: compare the live price above with the forecaster ratings. The scenario that moves this one is a national wave big enough to reach red-state Senate seats.
Seat held by Roger Marshall (R)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Roger Marshall leads the Kansas Senate market at 63¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 63%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean R (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Likely R (Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Roger Marshall (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:22 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for Kansas Senate
Adam Hamilton
Democrat38¢
Roger Marshall
Republican63¢
Seat held by Roger Marshall (R) — incumbent.
Live Kansas Senate Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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Kansas Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Roger Marshall (R) at 63¢ — a 63% implied chance — to win the Kansas Senate race; Adam Hamilton (D) is at 38¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Lean R (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) and Likely R (Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the Kansas Senate race a toss-up?
Not quite. Roger Marshall is a clear favorite at 63¢, but Adam Hamilton at 38¢ — about a 38% chance — means the lead is far from safe. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for Kansas Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the Kansas Senate race are Adam Hamilton (Democrat) and Roger Marshall (Republican), per published primary results as of 2026-09-27. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Kansas Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Kansas in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Kansas contract this cycle.