KS Senate
Kansas Senate winner? (2026)
342k contracts traded · 251k open
KS SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Safe R
Kansas Senate Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Kansas is a safe Republican hold with Roger Marshall running for re-election, and the market treats it as settled. Kansas has flirted with competitive Senate races before, but the contract prices this one as decided; the only scenario that moves it is a national wave big enough to reach red-state Senate seats, which the current price says is not the base case.
Seat held by Roger Marshall (R)running
Quick Answer
As of August 28, 2026, Roger Marshall leads the Kansas Senate market at 83¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 83%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe R, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Roger Marshall (R) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Who holds the Kansas seat
Roger Marshall
RepublicanIncumbent
Holds the seat and is on the 2026 ballot — read the live board below for the current market favorite.
Live Kansas Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
Kansas Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat is held by Roger Marshall (Republican) and rated safe r; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the Kansas Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in Kansas in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the Kansas contract this cycle.
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