NJ Senate
New Jersey Senate winner? (2026)
79k contracts traded · 54k open
NJ SENATE 2026Live · updated hourlyForecasters: Safe D · Cook, Inside Elections
New Jersey Senate Race 2026: Cory Booker vs Justin Murphy Odds
New Jersey is a safe Democratic hold with Cory Booker running for re-election. The market prices it as a formality; the state’s federal races have not been genuinely competitive in years, and the contract sits deep on the Democratic side. A floor reference for near-certainty, not a trade.
Seat held by Cory Booker (D)running
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Cory Booker leads the New Jersey Senate market at 97¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 97%. Forecasters rate the seat Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat held by Cory Booker (D) — incumbent.
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 7:52 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running for New Jersey Senate
Cory Booker
Democrat97¢
Justin Murphy
Republican3¢
Seat held by Cory Booker (D) — incumbent.
Live New Jersey Senate Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the race is a genuine coin flip.
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<a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/new-jersey-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-new-jersey-senate-graphic"><img src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/graphics/new-jersey-senate-race-odds-2026.png" alt="Chart of Kalshi odds for the 2026 New Jersey Senate race: Cory Booker 98%, Justin Murphy 3%." width="1200" height="675"></a>
<p>Source: <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026/new-jersey-senate?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=graphic&utm_campaign=midterms-new-jersey-senate-graphic">PredictionMarketsPicks</a> (CC BY 4.0)</p>Election Night board in your inbox — every race's live price, free
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New Jersey Senate 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026, Kalshi prices Cory Booker (D) at 97¢ — a 97% implied chance — to win the New Jersey Senate race; Justin Murphy (R) is at 3¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously. Forecasters rate the race Safe D (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections); the gap between that rating and the price is what this page tracks.
Is the New Jersey Senate race a toss-up?
No. The market prices Cory Booker at 97¢, which leaves the rest of the field roughly 3%. A toss-up in market terms means the leading contract sits near 50¢. The live board above updates hourly.
Who is running for New Jersey Senate in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the New Jersey Senate race are Cory Booker (Democrat) and Justin Murphy (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the New Jersey Senate market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the New Jersey Senate winner as a set of YES/NO contracts, one per outcome, each settling at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference between your estimate and the market price is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in New Jersey in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the New Jersey contract this cycle.