Dane taped this one with Rick Devens holding the Head of Household and a 40¢ price to win the season. His word for him was runaway train. His worry was that nobody in the house had the numbers to stop him.
It turns out the house only needed one vote. Drew Campbell has it tonight.
Open the Big Brother 28 winner market on Kalshi →
Kalshi has Devens 70–71¢ to be evicted tonight by Drew's sole vote, and 8–9¢ to win the season — down from 46¢ on Tuesday morning. Drew, the houseguest Dane said "no one is going to give the vote at the end," is now the favorite at 38–39¢. Dane's tape went 2-for-2 on the Week 11 calls it made (Melody out, Taylor through). The Devens call comes down to one decision tonight at 8 p.m. ET. Two positions still follow from what he said: Drew to NOT win at ~62¢ if you trust his jury read, and Devens to win at 9¢ — lottery size only — if you trust his Devens read.
What happened since the tape?
Dane recorded this while Melody Morris was still the 86% favorite to go and Devens had not named his nominees. It was posted Wednesday afternoon, September 23. By then the house had played two full rounds:
- Week 11: Devens nominated Drew and Melody. Drew won the veto and took himself off the block, and Devens named Taylor as the replacement. Melody was evicted September 21 in a shortened cycle while the feeds were dark, and became the fifth juror.
- Final Four: Taylor Brown won the Head of Household and nominated Drew and Dee. Drew won the veto again, used it on himself again, and Devens went up as the replacement. Devens and Dee are on the block, and Drew is the only vote.
Dane's two Week 11 calls both landed. Melody went. And Taylor did more than "slide through" — she survived as the replacement nominee, then won the HOH that started the Survivors' week on the block.
The one scenario Dane gave for stopping Devens was a women's alliance of Dee, Melody and Taylor. That did not happen. What happened instead was simpler: Taylor nominated, Drew held the veto, and a five-person game became a one-person vote.
What is the position tonight?
Market: Big Brother Season 28 · Thursday elimination (Kalshi · KXBIGBROTHERELIMINATION-26SEP24)
On the block: Rick Devens and Dee Valladares · Sole vote: Drew Campbell
Live board now: Rick Devens 70–71¢ to be eliminated, Dee Valladares 25–28¢
The read: the market expects Drew to evict Devens, and Dane's own tape explains why
Resolution: the live eviction, Thursday, September 24, 8 p.m. ET on CBS
Every number below is a Kalshi quote snapshotted at 10:20 a.m. ET on September 24, 2026, except Devens's season-winner price, re-checked at 10:34 a.m. ET after it moved. Nothing here is a projection.
Here is the part that makes tonight simple to read: Dane's case for Devens was the case for evicting him. "Devens would win sitting next to Drew," he said. Drew does not need to hear that from Dane. Live-feed reporting from Online Big Brother frames Drew's choice the same way: keep Devens and you are likely signing up for second. Devens's pitch runs the other direction — that he is the more loyal final-two partner and Dee is the one who beats Drew. The market does not believe that, and neither did Dane.
| Thursday elimination | Bid | Ask | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Devens | 70¢ | 71¢ | 70.5¢ |
| Dee Valladares | 25¢ | 28¢ | 26.5¢ |
| Melody Morris | 99¢ | 100¢ | already evicted, awaiting settlement |
| Drew Campbell · Taylor Brown | 0¢ | 1¢ | safe (vote · HOH) |
The two live contracts sum to about 97¢. Sum the board before you read any price on it — that has been the habit of this whole series, and here it says one Survivor is leaving tonight, not zero and not two.
Is there an edge in Devens-to-go at 71¢? Not at the ask. The Kalshi taker fee is 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract — about 1.4¢ at 71¢ — so the real entry is near 72.4¢ for a vote the board has had Devens favored to lose since Tuesday night. Fair, not cheap.
See the live Big Brother 28 boards on Kalshi →
How fast did the winner board flip?
Five days ago this series was writing about Devens doubling. This is the reverse trip.
| Houseguest | Sun., Sept. 20 | Tue., Sept. 22 (a.m.) | Tue., Sept. 22 (p.m.) | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Campbell | 14¢ | 12¢ | 38¢ | 38–39¢ |
| Dee Valladares | 31¢ | 20¢ | 18¢ | 32–33¢ |
| Taylor Brown | 11¢ | 22¢ | 21¢ | 14–17¢ |
| Rick Devens | 42¢ | 46¢ | 19¢ | 8–9¢ |
| Melody Morris | 2¢ | — | — | evicted |
Hourly Kalshi closes, 11 a.m. and 11 p.m. ET; "Now" is bid–ask at 10:20 a.m. ET Sept. 24 (Devens at 10:34).
Drew went from 10¢ at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday to 38¢ by 11 p.m. and has held there since. Devens was 46¢ Tuesday morning and has lost roughly four-fifths of that price. The last leg was this morning: Devens traded at 15¢ at 10 a.m. ET and at 2–3¢ by 10:13, on a burst of selling — while his eviction price barely moved — then bounced back to 8–9¢ by 10:34. Something reached the feeds or the traders this morning that moved the winner board and not the vote board. We cannot tell you what. Treat that as the most important caveat in this piece.
What is the winner board actually saying about Devens?
Divide each Survivor's winner price by their chance of surviving tonight, and you get the market's read on how each one does if they make the final three:
| Survive tonight | Win the season (mid) | Win if they survive | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dee Valladares | ~73.5% | 32.5¢ | ~44% |
| Rick Devens | ~29.5% | 8.5¢ | ~29% |
Same final three — Drew, Taylor and whichever Survivor stays — and the market gives Dee about half again Devens's chance from the same seat.
That is the direct opposite of Dane's tape. Dane's whole argument was that Devens has the best résumé in the house and wins sitting next to anyone. If you believe that, Devens-if-he-survives should be priced at least like Dee. At Dee's 44% conditional, Devens's winner contract would be worth about 13¢, not 8.5¢.
There is one reason the market might be right, and Dane names it himself. His video description says Devens took the $10,000 offer. Inside the house, someone pressed a button for $10,000 this season's final week; Drew and Dee suspect Devens, and production has not said who did it, per Online Big Brother's feed reporting. If the jury believes Devens took the money, that is exactly the kind of thing that turns a résumé into a grudge. It is the likeliest explanation for the gap — and we cannot verify it.
The two positions the tape still supports
1. Drew to NOT win the season — about 62¢. Dane's jury read on tape: "No one wants to give it to Drew." Drew's winner Yes bid is 38¢, so the No side costs about 62¢, plus a taker fee of about 1.6¢ — call it 63.6¢ all-in, paying $1 if Dee, Taylor or Devens wins. The market's own middle says 61.5%. This is worth owning only if your conviction that the jury won't pay Drew sits above roughly 64%. The catch: Drew is guaranteed the final three tonight and has the Final HOH in front of him, and a houseguest who wins the last HOH chooses his final-two opponent. Dane's read is about the jury. The price includes the path.
2. Devens to win the season — 9¢, lottery size. This is Dane's actual call, and it is now priced like a long shot, because it needs three things: Drew keeps him tonight (~30%), he reaches the final two, and the jury pays him. At the 9¢ ask plus about 0.6¢ in fees, a $10 position buys roughly 111 contracts that pay about $111 if he wins. If you think the 29%-vs-44% gap above is the market overreacting to the $10K story, this is how you say so. If you think the market knows something from the feeds this morning, you pass.
What is not a position: the Survivor basket. On September 19, Devens plus Dee cost about 74¢ all-in to pay $1 if either won. Tonight, one of them is almost certainly leaving. The basket now costs about 44¢ all-in (33¢ + 9¢ at the ask, plus ~2¢ in fees) — cheaper because it is worth less, not because it is on sale.
And no free lunch. Buying all four live winner contracts at the ask costs 39 + 33 + 17 + 9 = 98¢. Fees add about 4.8¢. That is 102.8¢ to collect $1 — the board is coherent in aggregate, and Taylor shows only 5 contracts at 17¢ before the ask steps up anyway.
Microstructure, for anyone entering size. Drew's book is deep on both sides — roughly 900 contracts offered at 39¢ against 1,300 bid at 38¢ — so the No side fills clean. Devens is thin: about 170 offered at 9¢ against 25 bid at 8¢ (10:34 a.m.), and this morning showed how fast a few hundred contracts move that price. Use limit orders at the bid. Do not chase.
What comes after tonight?
The schedule, per CBS as reported by Big Brother Network:
- Thursday, Sept. 24, 8 p.m. ET — live, two hours: the Final Four eviction and the start of the Final HOH competition
- Sunday, Sept. 27, 9:30 p.m. ET — the fallout and part one of the Final HOH
- Thursday, Oct. 1, 8 p.m. ET — the 90-minute finale: the last two parts of the Final HOH, the final eviction and the jury vote
The winner board will reprice hard the moment tonight's vote is read. If Devens survives, his winner contract is the one that moves most — it is priced at 29% conditional, and it would stop being conditional. If Dee survives, the board is pricing that already.
How do you read a board like this?
Every number above is a probability in cents, and the reference pages do the conversion work:
- Probability converter — turn 62¢ into an implied probability, a decimal or a fraction.
- EV calculator — run Drew-No against your own conviction number before you pay 63.6¢ for it.
- Kelly calculator — size a 9¢ contract on a board that moved 40¢ in two days.
- Expected value in prediction markets — why "the favorite" and "the value" are different questions.
- Kelly criterion for prediction markets — why the right size here is a fraction of what feels right.
- Kalshi on PMP — how contracts settle and where the Big Brother markets live.
Catch Up on the Series
- Final five: Devens 36¢, Dee 35¢ — the Survivor basket at 74¢
- Week 10: the 207¢ board — two exits priced before the double aired
- Week 8: Devens 56¢ to be evicted, Yash passes Dee as favorite
- The original value plays: LaTrice and Taylor at pennies
- Every entertainment market we cover
Dane Martinez covers reality TV, awards and entertainment markets for The 7 Oracles. Big Brother reads land through the October 1 finale; the free newsletter gets them first, and Pro is $150 a year — $111 your first year.
Prices are Kalshi quotes snapshotted at 10:20 a.m. ET on September 24, 2026, and move continuously — the Devens winner contract moved 13¢ in the fifteen minutes before this snapshot. House events are live-feed reporting, not a CBS broadcast, until they air. Dane's video was recorded before Melody's eviction and posted September 23. Nothing here is a projection or a guarantee. It is a record of what the market said, when, against what Dane said on tape.
