Fade the Field Ep. 22: NFL Week 9 Picks, the Bengals–Falcons Over and a Browns Upset in New Orleans

Coach Gene Clemons (@geneclemons) and Chris James (@CJFlorida9) streamed Episode 22 of Fade the Field live on Thursday, Nov. 5, a few hours before the Week 9 Thursday night game. The show runs four quarters and an overtime: best favorite, best underdog, best over, best under, then props.

Last week had four teams on bye. Week 9 is nearly a full slate, and the hosts found two overs they like and one upset Gene thinks the market has wrong. The headline is Cincinnati at Atlanta, where Gene doesn't just want the over. He wants 60.

▶ Watch on its own page, with the full transcript →

The card

Every price below is what the hosts read on tape on Nov. 5, 2026. Each segment links to its timestamp in the video.

To turn any multiple into a probability yourself, use the probability converter. The full Week 9 slate with every live price is on the Week 9 schedule.

Gene's best over: Bengals at Falcons, and the shot at 60

Gene's case starts with what Cincinnati does to everyone. The Titans hadn't scored on anybody all year and then put up points on the Bengals like the '90s Cowboys. In Gene's words, Cincinnati is going to score whatever you want: if you want to go touchdown for touchdown, they don't mind.

Then there's Atlanta, coming off a shutout and, in Gene's view, chomping at the bit to score again. He expects the Falcons to lean on Bijan Robinson, with Brian Robinson behind him, because Cincinnati doesn't defend the run well, and to build play action off it. He sees Drake London getting 10 to 11 targets. Atlanta's defense held up early in the year, but he thinks the injuries are catching up with it, and it hasn't faced an offense like this one. "It's Green Bay's offense on steroids."

Gene's main position is the 52.5. He says he'll add a smaller one on 60. CJ is on the over too, with a final score of 31–27. That's 58 points: it clears 52.5 and misses 60. CJ's caveat is that most run-first teams slow the game down, but Atlanta, like Detroit, gets explosive plays out of its backfield, so the running game adds points instead of taking them away.

Q2, best underdog: the Browns to win in New Orleans

Gene's upset pick is the Browns. Deshaun Watson is in the concussion protocol, and Gene thinks Cleveland may be happy to keep him there and see what Shedeur Sanders can do. He sees a quarterback who throws facing a defense that lets you throw, plus a group of young receivers who, in Gene's view, don't see Sanders the way the Cleveland media does. "Everywhere he's been, he's been a winner."

The Saints are 3-point favorites. Gene doesn't want the points. He takes Cleveland to win outright at about 2.5x, roughly 40% implied.

CJ is from New Orleans and a Saints fan, and he says up front that he picked against them against Pittsburgh and Las Vegas. This week he has New Orleans by seven. His reasons: the offensive line got healthier over the bye, and he thinks the Saints' run defense, their weak spot, matches up well against a Browns team that hasn't run the ball efficiently. Unless Quinshon Judkins turns back into the back he was at Ohio State, CJ expects Sanders to spend too much of the game behind the sticks. Gene's answer: he can see the Saints winning by seven, and he can see the Browns winning by seven. At 2.5x, that makes Cleveland the underdog to own.

CJ's own underdog is Commanders +4.5 at home against the Rams, and he thinks Washington can win outright. His case: athletic linebackers for the Rams' tight-end game, a pass rush against a line he calls good but not great, and injuries in the Rams secondary that Jayden Daniels can attack deep. Washington has already beaten Seattle at home with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. Gene prefers taking the points over the outright win and reads Commanders +4.5 at 50¢. He isn't putting a position on the Rams until they play more consistently.

Live boards: Browns at Saints · Rams at Commanders.

Q1, best favorite: Bears −6 and Broncos −2.5

Gene says he doesn't want to be a prisoner of the moment, and his Bears pick isn't only about Monday night. Tampa Bay has won without a passing game for weeks, and he thinks the passing game has gotten worse since the Buccaneers paid Baker Mayfield. Then the Bears traded two first-round picks for Jeffery Simmons, and to Gene this team is now scary. He doesn't see Tampa Bay running on Chicago or throwing on it, so he expects a blowout: Bears −6 at 53¢.

CJ calls the Bears his current Super Bowl favorite and still sees a closer game. His final score is 26–20, which lands exactly on six. Tampa Bay's run blocking has been excellent, with Tristan Wirfs as one of the most consistent linemen in the league, and that gives the Buccaneers a play-action game that keeps them in it. In the end, though, both hosts land on Caleb Williams. CJ: "He's Thanos. He's inevitable."

CJ's favorite is Broncos −2.5 at Carolina. He likes Nik Bonitto and the Denver pass rush against a banged-up Panthers line, and he isn't worried that it's a road game in the early window. Gene adds that Denver will lean on the run with rookie Jonah Coleman against a defense that can't stop it. If you can't stop the run, you lose time of possession and probably the turnover battle, and lose both and you probably lose the game. Gene reads it at 52¢.

Live boards: Buccaneers at Bears · Broncos at Panthers.

Q3, CJ's over: Packers at Patriots over 45.5

CJ's recipe for an over: an athletic quarterback, a mediocre running game, receivers who can make plays after the catch, and two teams that both really want the game. He doesn't understand why this total is only 45.5 and thinks it should be closer to 48.5. Green Bay will try to put up points, and New England will have to play catch-up all day if it wants to win.

Gene agrees that Green Bay will shoot it out with anyone. Tucker Kraft is getting yards after the catch again, and Christian Gonzalez can't cover everybody, so whoever New England leaves him off of gets the targets. On the other side, Drake Maye has recovered from the worst start to a season Gene says he's ever seen, and the Patriots have found ways to score, even when it isn't pretty. Gene reads the over 45.5 at 48¢, about 2.1x.

Q4, best under: Texans at Chargers under 40.5

Both hosts are here. The Chargers scored 9 and 6 points in their last two games, and CJ says he'll take the under in Chargers games until they show him they're competent. Houston's offense isn't lighting it up either, and CJ expects a muted game, 23–13 at most.

Gene is harder on the Chargers. Houston has had Justin Herbert's number for years, Herbert has been bad this season, and Gene says offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has been exposed. Houston's defense is hungry and its offense is coming off a bye, but Gene still doesn't see 35 points. He projects 28–10 or 24–10, a comfortable Houston win that stays under. He reads the under 40.5 at 50¢.

Live board: Texans at Chargers.

Overtime: Josh Allen, three ways, and Javonte Williams

Gene's prop is the one he keeps coming back to: Josh Allen anytime touchdown, at Minnesota, at 55¢. A tough defense only makes him more confident: when nothing else is working, Buffalo gives it to Allen. Gene broke down a new wrinkle in the Bills' quarterback sneak, where a guard grabs Allen and pulls him forward while the players behind him push. Both hosts think it should be on the competition committee's list. Until then, he wants to know how this isn't 60% every week, and says he'll keep investing in it until it is.

CJ goes further with a three-leg Allen stack: under on passing yards, over on rushing yards and an anytime touchdown. He thinks Allen will run instead of throwing into Minnesota's disguised pressures and coverages. The hosts didn't read the yardage lines, so check them on the NFL prop board. These legs are linked, so price them together: if Allen runs more, he likely throws less, which is the whole idea, and it also means the combo shouldn't cost what three independent legs would. The Combo Edge Builder prices the full combo against the market, and how Kalshi combos work explains how that price is built.

CJ's last prop is Javonte Williams over 66 rushing yards for Dallas at Indianapolis. He calls 66 absurd. He doesn't see Brian Schottenheimer changing what Dallas does, he thinks Indianapolis looked like it quit last week, and he expects the Cowboys to run late to kill the clock. His number is about 93 yards. No price was read on tape.

Live boards: Bills at Vikings · Cowboys at Colts.

Before the show: the Thursday opener

The hosts opened on Jaguars at Ravens, which kicked off a few hours after the stream. CJ wanted the over 39.5 early, on the idea that Baltimore's scripted opening drives would get points on the board, and pointed out that you can sell a contract before the game ends if the start goes wrong. Gene expected Jacksonville to cover 9.5 to 10 and projected something like 27–14. CJ's model had 29–13. That game is final by the time most people read this; the matchup page has the result.

Before you take any of these

Every number above is from Nov. 5. By Sunday, some of these will have moved for you and some against you. A contract can be sold before kickoff. Size each position before you enter it: the Kelly calculator is free, the Oracle Ladder lays our distribution against the market at every strike, and the live edge board at /nfl/edges shows where our model and the market disagree right now.

Watch it

Episode 22 runs 43 minutes. The video is at the top of this page, and the card table links each segment to its timestamp. CJ hosts Chop It Up with CJ, four episodes a week, and does the fantasy segment on the NY Blitz show on PIX11. Every episode with a written breakdown lives at Fade the Field. The Week 6 episode, with the Saints–Giants over and Gene's three-man touchdown combo, is here.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks. Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ as market-implied probabilities and settle on the real outcome. Everything here is the hosts' analysis with a stated position attached, recorded at a stated price on a stated date. Nothing here is advice. Trade responsibly.