Paid partnership with Polymarket. Polymarket US prices in this article are informational and come from PredictionMarketsPicks' own 15-minute snapshots of the Polymarket US order book; each carries the time it was taken.
NEW YORK — The October Consumer Price Index came in hot at 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10, and the prediction markets spent the next two hours putting a price on a question that was barely on the board at breakfast: does the Fed go 50 in December?
Headline CPI rose 0.4% in October, against a 0.3% consensus, after 0.6% in September. Core CPI rose 0.3%, against 0.2% expected, the same pace as September. Both prints were a tenth hotter than the Street. There is no year-over-year number this month: the October 2025 government shutdown kept the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting prices that month, so there is nothing to compare against. The last published annual rates are September's 3.7% headline and 2.6% core.
At 9:52 AM ET, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support at least a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, and that a half-point hike should be considered if core prices rose 0.3% or more in the month. Core was 0.3%.
What the CPI markets had priced going in
Polymarket US lists a strike ladder on the monthly CPI number: one contract per threshold, each asking whether the print comes in above it. Here is the last PMP snapshot of each before the release, as midpoints of the bid and ask:
| Contract (October, month over month) | Price before 8:30 AM ET | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI above 0.2% | 55.5¢ (4:19 AM ET) | Yes, 0.4% |
| Headline CPI above 0.3% | 9¢ (7:36 AM ET, 7-11¢ spread) | Yes, 0.4% |
| Headline CPI above 0.4% | 1¢ ask | No |
| Core CPI above 0.2% | 34.5¢ (7:36 AM ET) | Yes, 0.3% |
| Core CPI above 0.3% | 4.5¢ (6:21 AM ET, 3-6¢ spread) | No |
Read straight off the ladder, the market had the most likely headline outcome at 0.3% and core at 0.2%, the same as the economist consensus. A headline print of 0.4% or higher was roughly a one-in-eleven outcome. These contracts settle on the BLS release; the full ladder and its resolution terms are on Polymarket US.
Polymarket US also listed year-over-year CPI strikes for October. With no official annual figure published, how those resolve comes down to each contract's terms, and we are not quoting their prices here.
What it did to the December Fed odds
The Fed's target range is 3.75%-4.00%. It hiked a quarter point on Sept. 16 and held on Oct. 28, when Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of another hike. Going into today, a December hike was already the market's base case. The CPI did not change that. It changed the size.
Polymarket US, Fed decision at the Dec. 8-9 meeting, midpoints from PMP snapshots:
| Outcome | 7:36 AM ET | 10:42 AM ET | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25 bp | 86.5¢ | 85.5¢ | -1 |
| Hike 50 bp | 5.5¢ | 12.5¢ | +7 |
| No change | 7.5¢ | 3.5¢ (9:40 AM ET) | -4 |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.5¢ | 1¢ ask | — |
The half-point contract more than doubled, and nearly all of that came out of the hold. The quarter-point outcome barely moved. Put together, the market's probability that the Fed raises rates in some size on Dec. 9 went from roughly 92% to roughly 98%.
The other venues agree. As of about 11:00 AM ET, Kalshi priced any hike at the December meeting at 97% and a hold at 4%, and our cross-venue check had Kalshi, Polymarket US and CME fed funds futures within one point of each other on the most likely outcome. The live comparison updates every 30 minutes on the Fed Rate Tracker divergence page.
"Another hike in 2026" went from 87.5 to 96.5
Polymarket US also lists a simpler year-end question: will the Fed raise rates again before Dec. 31, 2026? It traded at an 87.5-cent midpoint at 5:20 AM ET and 96.5 cents at 10:42 AM ET. With one meeting left on the 2026 calendar, that contract and the December decision market are now pricing nearly the same thing.
Further out, Kalshi has a hike priced at 94% for the Jan. 26-27, 2027 meeting and 92% for March 16-17, 2027. The full path is on the Fed Rate Tracker, and the end-2027 fed funds level trades on Polymarket US as well:
The rest of the tape
As of late morning ET:
- S&P 500: 7,499.66, down 0.67%. Dow: 52,042.92, down 0.66%. Nasdaq: 25,051.07, down 0.80%. Russell 2000: down 1.32%.
- 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.99%, up roughly 12 basis points.
- VIX: 20.86, up 4.7%.
- Gold: $4,052.50, down 1.5%. Bitcoin: about $73,290, down 2.2%. WTI crude: $85.74, down 1.3%, after President Trump said he would hold off on new Iran strikes.
Inside the report, food rose 0.5% (lettuce up 7.3%), energy 0.7%, gasoline 1.0%, transportation services 0.8% and car insurance 0.7%. Shelter cooled slightly to 0.3% from 0.4%, and used cars fell 1.2%. Gasoline is up 37.4% from October 2025 on an unadjusted basis.
The calendar from here
- Dec. 8-9: the FOMC meeting. The decision is at 2:00 PM ET on Dec. 9.
- Dec. 10: the November CPI, the day after the decision. Today's print is the last CPI the committee sees before it votes.
- In between: the November jobs report, the October PCE inflation data and a full slate of Fed speakers before the pre-meeting blackout. Each one is a repricing event for the 25-versus-50 split.
If you are new to how these contracts settle, how KXFED settles walks through Kalshi's version: the contract pays on the upper bound of the target range the FOMC announces. We wrote up the September CPI and the October meeting the same way, and the Fed decision record grades every meeting against what the markets priced. For how the two venues compare on fees and coverage, see Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Prices in this article are midpoints from PredictionMarketsPicks' snapshots of Polymarket US, plus Kalshi as of about 11:00 AM ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026. Market levels are as of late morning ET. The Fed Rate Tracker and the embedded Polymarket US markets update continuously, and their numbers supersede the ones here.
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