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On the evening of Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, 15 NFL Week 9 games still to start had a game-winner market on both Polymarket US and Kalshi. Using Kalshi's prices at 7:19 p.m. ET and our latest Polymarket US snapshot of each market, time-stamped 2:09 p.m. to 7:18 p.m. ET, and priced as the cost to buy one contract after each venue's taker fee, Polymarket US was cheaper on 12 of the 30 sides, Kalshi was cheaper on 2, and 16 were the same price (within half a cent).
The gaps are small. 13 of the 14 that clear half a cent are about a cent or less per contract, which is about $1.00 or less on 100 contracts. The widest of the read was L.A. Chargers in Houston at L.A. Chargers: 35.57¢ all-in on Kalshi against 34.28¢ on Polymarket US (snapshot 4:13 p.m. ET), 1.3¢ apart.
Every price below is the cost to buy one contract on that team to win: the venue's best ask plus its taker fee at that price. Kalshi was read at 7:19 p.m. ET. Each Polymarket US price is our latest snapshot of that market, with its own time in the table, between 2:09 p.m. and 7:18 p.m. ET. Our snapshot table records a market when its book changes, so an older stamp means an older last recorded change, and the two venues' times are not always the same minute. Prices move all day, so treat this as a snapshot, not a quote. Our Best Price board and Arb Scanner track the live gap.
Why the two venues print different prices
- Tick size. In this read, Polymarket US quoted NFL game markets in quarter-cent steps (61.25¢), while Kalshi's quoted in whole cents. When both books sit at the same spot, Polymarket US's ask can land a fraction inside Kalshi's.
- Fees. Both venues charge a taker fee that scales with price × (1 − price), so it peaks at 50¢ and shrinks toward 0¢ and 100¢. Polymarket US's published rate is slightly lower than Kalshi's. See Polymarket US fees and our Kalshi fee calculator for the exact schedules.
- Two books. Each venue has its own order book, so the venue that's cheaper on one team isn't always the cheaper one on the other team in the same game.
Widest gaps on the board
| Game | To win | Kalshi all-in | Polymarket US all-in | Polymarket US as of (ET) | Cheaper after fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston at L.A. Chargers | L.A. Chargers | 35.57¢ | 34.28¢ | 4:13 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.3¢ |
| Green Bay at New England | Green Bay | 41.68¢ | 40.65¢ | 4:58 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ |
| L.A. Rams at Washington | Washington | 34.55¢ | 33.77¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.8¢ |
| Dallas at Indianapolis | Indianapolis | 31.47¢ | 32.23¢ | 6:47 p.m. | Kalshi by 0.8¢ |
| N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia | N.Y. Giants | 64.63¢ | 63.88¢ | 2:54 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.8¢ |
| Green Bay at New England | New England | 63.65¢ | 62.90¢ | 4:58 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.8¢ |
Every game on both venues, still to start
| Start (ET) | Game | To win | Kalshi: ask → all-in | Polymarket US: ask → all-in | Polymarket US as of (ET) | Cheaper after fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu. 8:15 p.m. | Jacksonville at Baltimore | Jacksonville | 82¢ → 83.03¢ | 81.75¢ → 82.79¢ | 6:00 p.m. | Same |
| Baltimore | 19¢ → 20.08¢ | 18.5¢ → 19.55¢ | 6:00 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.5¢ | ||
| Sun. 9:30 a.m. | Cincinnati at Atlanta | Cincinnati | 62¢ → 63.65¢ | 61.5¢ → 63.15¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.5¢ |
| Atlanta | 39¢ → 40.67¢ | 39¢ → 40.65¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Same | ||
| Sun. 1 p.m. | L.A. Rams at Washington | L.A. Rams | 68¢ → 69.52¢ | 68¢ → 69.51¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Same |
| Washington | 33¢ → 34.55¢ | 32.25¢ → 33.77¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.8¢ | ||
| Sun. 1 p.m. | N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia | N.Y. Giants | 63¢ → 64.63¢ | 62.25¢ → 63.88¢ | 2:54 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.8¢ |
| Philadelphia | 38¢ → 39.65¢ | 38¢ → 39.64¢ | 2:54 p.m. | Same | ||
| Sun. 1 p.m. | Detroit at Miami | Detroit | 75¢ → 76.31¢ | 74.25¢ → 75.58¢ | 6:47 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.7¢ |
| Miami | 26¢ → 27.35¢ | 26¢ → 27.34¢ | 6:47 p.m. | Same | ||
| Sun. 1 p.m. | Dallas at Indianapolis | Dallas | 70¢ → 71.47¢ | 69.5¢ → 70.97¢ | 6:47 p.m. | Same |
| Indianapolis | 30¢ → 31.47¢ | 30.75¢ → 32.23¢ | 6:47 p.m. | Kalshi by 0.8¢ | ||
| Sun. 1 p.m. | Denver at Carolina | Denver | 57¢ → 58.72¢ | 56.5¢ → 58.21¢ | 2:09 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.5¢ |
| Carolina | 44¢ → 45.72¢ | 43.75¢ → 45.46¢ | 2:09 p.m. | Same | ||
| Sun. 1 p.m. | Cleveland at New Orleans | Cleveland | 40¢ → 41.68¢ | 39.75¢ → 41.41¢ | 2:23 p.m. | Same |
| New Orleans | 61¢ → 62.67¢ | 60.5¢ → 62.16¢ | 2:23 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.5¢ | ||
| Sun. 1 p.m. | N.Y. Jets at Kansas City | N.Y. Jets | 19¢ → 20.08¢ | 19.25¢ → 20.33¢ | 7:02 p.m. | Same |
| Kansas City | 81¢ → 82.08¢ | 81¢ → 82.07¢ | 7:02 p.m. | Same | ||
| Sun. 4:05 p.m. | Houston at L.A. Chargers | Houston | 67¢ → 68.55¢ | 67.5¢ → 69.02¢ | 4:13 p.m. | Same |
| L.A. Chargers | 34¢ → 35.57¢ | 32.75¢ → 34.28¢ | 4:13 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.3¢ | ||
| Sun. 4:25 p.m. | Green Bay at New England | Green Bay | 40¢ → 41.68¢ | 39¢ → 40.65¢ | 4:58 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ |
| New England | 62¢ → 63.65¢ | 61.25¢ → 62.90¢ | 4:58 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.8¢ | ||
| Sun. 4:25 p.m. | Arizona at Seattle | Arizona | 22¢ → 23.20¢ | 22.5¢ → 23.71¢ | 5:45 p.m. | Kalshi by 0.5¢ |
| Seattle | 78¢ → 79.20¢ | 77.75¢ → 78.95¢ | 5:45 p.m. | Same | ||
| Sun. 4:25 p.m. | Las Vegas at San Francisco | Las Vegas | 20¢ → 21.12¢ | 19.75¢ → 20.85¢ | 5:30 p.m. | Same |
| San Francisco | 81¢ → 82.08¢ | 80.5¢ → 81.59¢ | 5:30 p.m. | Same | ||
| Sun. 8:20 p.m. | Tampa Bay at Chicago | Tampa Bay | 29¢ → 30.44¢ | 28.5¢ → 29.92¢ | 3:41 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.5¢ |
| Chicago | 72¢ → 73.41¢ | 71.75¢ → 73.16¢ | 3:41 p.m. | Same | ||
| Mon. 8:15 p.m. | Buffalo at Minnesota | Buffalo | 63¢ → 64.63¢ | 62.25¢ → 63.88¢ | 7:02 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.8¢ |
| Minnesota | 38¢ → 39.65¢ | 38¢ → 39.64¢ | 7:02 p.m. | Same |
How we priced it
- Polymarket US: the latest row for each game-winner market in PredictionMarketsPicks' Polymarket US snapshot table at the Kalshi read, with that row's own time. The table records a market when its book changes and at least every six hours. The price to buy the other team is 100¢ minus the best bid. All 15 games on both venues had a usable row; none were dropped.
- Kalshi: Kalshi's public market data for its NFL game-winner markets, read at 7:19 p.m. ET.
- All-in price: best ask plus that venue's taker fee at that price, per contract. Kalshi rounds its fee up to the next cent per order, so a one-contract order pays slightly more than shown; at 100 contracts the difference disappears.
- Same price: a gap under half a cent (0.50¢). All-in prices show two decimals so you can see why a pair counts as the same.
- Only games that had not started, and only books with both a bid and an ask no more than 15¢ apart.
Keep going
- Best Price: Kalshi vs. Polymarket US, after fees
- NFL prices: Kalshi vs. Polymarket US
- Kalshi vs. Polymarket US, side by side
- Arb Scanner: live cross-venue gaps
- What Polymarket US lists in sports
- Probability converter
- NFL hub
- The 5-Minute Board for what else Polymarket US lists
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