Ohio Senate Odds: Sherrod Brown Hits 70¢ and Is Still a Toss-Up — Plus Mike Washington Jr.'s Ladder and the DWTS Double Elimination

The sharpest call on Wednesday's show was about a Senate race, not a game.

Dane Martinez pulled up our Markets vs. Pundits board, sorted it by the gap and stopped on Ohio. The forecasters call Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted a toss-up. Kalshi had Brown at 64¢. Dane's read: buy Brown before the next poll forces the forecasters to catch up. Two days later Brown is 70¢, and every major rating still says toss-up.

Coach Gene Clemons and Dane covered three more markets in 42 minutes, with Alex running the board: Dane's Play of the Day on Mike Washington Jr. for Rams at Raiders, a Dancing with the Stars dedication night where nobody went home, and three NBA opening-week calls that have already settled.

▶ Watch on its own page, with the full transcript →

What's in this episode

Ohio Senate: the market moved, the ratings didn't

Ohio's special election fills the seat JD Vance left for the vice presidency. Jon Husted, the Republican appointed to it in 2025, faces Democrat Sherrod Brown.

Dane's case has three parts:

• The ratings say toss-up. Cook (as of Oct. 20), Inside Elections (Oct. 15) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (June 11) all have Ohio as a toss-up, which the Markets vs. Pundits board scores as 50%.
• The market says otherwise. Kalshi had Brown at 64¢ during the show, a 14-point gap. That is how Dane found it: he sorted the board by the gap.
• The polls are old. The latest public poll on our Ohio race page is Rasmussen Reports, Sept. 22–23: Brown 46%, Husted 43% among 1,115 likely voters, inside the ±3 margin. That is why the ratings still say toss-up.

"Before another poll comes out and all of a sudden the poll matches these markets, go ahead and get you a piece of Brown," Dane said. He expected the 65¢ contract to become 70¢, then 75¢. He was also clear about what the call is and isn't: "I don't care, Gene, about your politics. I don't care who you back. It doesn't matter to me. But when I see a trend line like this..."

Here is that trend line: Brown's contract at Kalshi's daily close, from the exchange's own price history.

From March through September, Brown closed between 47¢ and 61¢. He closed at 64¢ on Oct. 4, fell back to 59¢ on Oct. 10 and has not closed below 65¢ since Oct. 16. The ratings haven't moved with him.

Dane's filter is the important part. The biggest gaps on the board are not the tradeable ones:

North Carolina and Georgia have wider gaps, but there is little left to buy at 95¢ and 97¢. "Gene, I know you ain't going to trade something that's 96%," Dane said on air. What he looks for is a race the forecasters still call a coin flip that the market already prices near 60¢. Ohio was that race on Wednesday.

Gene, who lives in Georgia, credited Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock with moving a state that used to lean red. He also thinks the talk of Ossoff as a presidential candidate is early.

Dane's starting point is our 2024 accuracy audit: on election eve, both Kalshi and Polymarket had Trump favored in all seven battleground states, while the polling averages had at least five as coin flips. Our midterms hub simulates the whole 2026 map.

What could go wrong. A 70¢ contract loses three times in 10. The market isn't a forecast you can't beat: a fresh poll showing a tie would test it, and the next poll is the thing Dane is trading on. The price has also already moved 5¢ since his call. After fees, Brown costs about 71.5¢ on both Kalshi and Polymarket US, per our race page at 9:22 a.m. ET Friday, so there is no cheaper venue right now.

Mike Washington Jr.: Dane's Play of the Day, and Thursday's practice report

Rams at Raiders, Sunday, Oct. 25, 4:25 p.m. ET, Las Vegas. Matchup page · Washington's prop page

Dane's case was a role that is growing behind a starter whose runs aren't working:

• Ashton Jeanty is averaging 3.2 yards a carry on 98 attempts. Dane added that Jeanty has been stuffed, stopped at or behind the line, on 26.5% of his runs, the highest rate in the NFL.
• Mike Washington Jr. is at 4.9 on 34 carries for 168 yards. The Raiders took him in the fourth round out of Arkansas, 122nd overall.
• In Week 6, a 33–30 loss to Buffalo, Washington ran nine times for 43 yards. Jeanty ran 10 times for 22 and scored. Washington played a season-high 23 snaps after five the week before.
• Jeanty is still the receiving back. Dane's point is that the market prices a player off what has already happened: "The props, the algorithms, they go off of what has happened already."

The site's Play of the Day, published at 10:14 a.m. ET Wednesday, is Washington 15+ rushing yards, YES at 64¢ on Kalshi. "Because I'm the conservative one," Dane said. On air he walked up the ladder for anyone who wants more payout:

Dane's sizing came from a tip Benny gave the crew the week before. Instead of $100 on one rung, split it: $25 each on 20+, 25+ and 30+, and the last $25 higher up the ladder. Gene added a warning from the same segment. When Alex typed $25 into the 30+ rung, the ticket showed less back than a 27¢ price implies, because the book was too thin to fill that size at the quote. Gene's fix is a resting order: name your price and let traders come to you.

By Friday morning the 25+ rung had moved from 38¢ on air to 51–52¢.

What changed after the show. Washington was limited in Wednesday's practice with foot and back injuries, did not practice Thursday and is questionable for Sunday on ESPN's Friday injury listing. Inactives come out at 2:55 p.m. ET, 90 minutes before kickoff. Dane made the call Wednesday morning, before the week's first injury report. Before you touch these contracts now, know two things:

• Kalshi does not void a player prop if he sits. If Washington is ruled out, or is active and never takes a snap, every contract on him settles at the last fair price Kalshi sets, not your entry price back. One snap and it settles on his stats. The full rule is in our DNP explainer.
• The fork runs both ways. If Washington sits, his carries have to go somewhere. That is the same "who benefits" question Dane asks of the NBA injury report, and Jeanty's rushing line is the first place to look.

What our board said. On Wednesday, before the injury news, our prop model projected Washington for 26.9 rushing yards against the 14.5 line. It held the row at WATCH, not PLAY. Its carry shares come from play-by-play and lag a role that changes week to week, and at the ask the edge didn't clear the spread plus the fee. The live ladder for every rung is on the Week 7 ladder board.

Dancing with the Stars: nobody went home, so two go Tuesday

Gene's rule all season has been the same: don't buy the champion, buy the survivors. Tuesday's dedication night backed his other point, that the show usually doesn't send anyone home on an emotional night. Kalshi's Episode 7 elimination market settled on "None." Gene said None was trading near 75% the night before. If you knew the history, that was the contract.

The judges' scores (out of 40), per the Deseret News:

Bersten danced with Dewan while her partner, Val Chmerkovskiy, was suspended, which Gene flagged on air.

With nobody cut, next Tuesday (Oct. 27) is a double elimination. Kalshi's Episode 8 market was up by Friday morning (9:30 a.m. ET):

The four lowest scores on dedication night were a four-way tie at 32: Cameron, Ali, Olson and Wood. The market has picked Olson and Cameron to go. Gene's framework says to look hardest at the No side on contestants with big fan bases who survive the vote even when the judges score them low. On the show he named Tatyana Ali, Tyler Cameron and Julia Stiles. At Friday's prices that is Ali No at 64–65¢, Cameron No at 41–42¢ and Stiles No at 91–92¢.

The winner market. Ezra Frech is the runaway favorite:

Frech was 8¢ on Sept. 15 (Gene's DWTS breakdown). Dane asked Gene the right question: with one name near 58¢, would you rather own Frech or the field? Both took the field.

Gene's version: out of $100, put $25 on Harry Shum Jr., then don't wait for the finale to cash out. Every week a contender survives, the field shrinks and the cheap contracts reprice. Dane did that in Big Brother: a houseguest he bought near 4% made the final three and traded as high as 23%. "There's your cash-out opportunity," he said.

The finale is Nov. 24, and Dane's last point was to work backward from it: count the couples left against the episodes left, and you can see a double elimination or a "None" week coming before the market prices it. Check the elimination market each week before you assume one cut.

Wednesday's NBA calls, settled

The show opened with three calls for Wednesday night's games. All three have settled:

Gene's case for the over was pace and fouls: two teams with stars who attack the rim. "Fouls are great because fouls allow you to put points on the board without the clock," he said. His in-game tell was more than five fouls in the first six minutes. Paolo Banchero finished with 35 points and 10 assists for Orlando, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored 31 for Atlanta.

Dane's bigger NBA point was about the injury report. In the NFL you know who is inactive 90 minutes before kickoff. In the NBA it can run to tip-off. Our NBA injury report lays out the fork for each questionable player before lineups lock: the line if he plays, the line if he doesn't, and who picks up the shots and rebounds. Gene's example: when Doncic sits, Austin Reaves' points-rebounds-assists line is the one to check. Dane wrote up how to use it.

Also on the show

• The app: the 7 Oracles app is live on Android, and the Play of the Day comes as a push notification. iPhone is on the way.
• Resting orders: Gene's tip from the Washington segment. In a thin book, post your own price and let traders come to you instead of paying the ask.
• The newsletter is free. The newsletter lands in your inbox several times a week with entertainment, politics, Bitcoin and sports reads like these.

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More from the collective on the Oracles hub. The prices above were read on air Wednesday, Oct. 21 (10:18 to 11:00 a.m. ET) and on Kalshi Friday morning, Oct. 23. They move, and the linked boards are live. Trade responsibly.