Week 8 opens tonight at Lambeau Field and runs through Monday night in Seattle. Fourteen games, four teams on bye, and one quarterback room nobody has settled yet. Every price below is Kalshi at about 7 PM ET Thursday, Oct. 29. Every line is the median of nine books from the same run. Every model number is the one printed on that game's page.
How to read this page
A Kalshi price is the market's probability: 62¢ means a 62% chance. Four other words do work here.
- Our line is the model's margin for the game, printed beside the nine-book line. The gap between them is a lean: our read against the market's, in points. It is not a position.
- A position needs more than a disagreement. It needs the Kalshi price to sit away from the books' own consensus by more than the book's spread, after the fee.
- An Oracle Fork is a game whose starting quarterback is officially unresolved. We don't blank the game and we don't guess. We publish both lines and say where the market sits between them.
- QB-adjusted means a starter is confirmed but isn't the quarterback the team's power rating was built on. One line, and our lean is capped at Watch however big it is.
The Week 8 board
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Kalshi (Thu 7 PM) | Nine-book line | Our line | QB status on our board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Panthers at Packers | Packers 64¢ | GB −3.5 | GB by 4.9 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Ravens at Bills | Bills 62¢ | BUF −3 | BUF by 3.6 with Jackson · BUF by 8.1 with Huntley | Oracle Fork: Jackson / Huntley |
| Sun 1 PM | Titans at Bengals | Bengals 84¢ | CIN −11.5 | CIN by 9.4 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Cardinals at Cowboys | Cowboys 75¢ | DAL −7 | DAL by 6.3 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Vikings at Lions | Lions 62¢ | DET −3.5 | DET by 2.5 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Colts at Jaguars | Jaguars 81¢ | JAX −10 | JAX by 7.0 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Raiders at Jets | Jets 53¢ | NYJ −1.5 | NYJ by 3.9 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Browns at Steelers | Steelers 65¢ | PIT −3.5 | PIT by 3.2 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Falcons at Buccaneers | Buccaneers 56¢ | TB −2.5 | TB by 3.7 | Set |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Chargers at Rams | Rams 74¢ | LAR −6.5 | LAR by 8.7 | Set |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs 53¢ | DEN −1.5 | Under review | Set |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Patriots at Dolphins | Patriots 77¢ | NE −7 | NE by 4.8 | Set |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Eagles at Commanders | Commanders 70¢ | WAS −6 | WAS by 6.9 | QB-adjusted: McKee for Hurts |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bears at Seahawks | Seahawks 61¢ | SEA −3 | SEA by 3.4 | Set |
Kalshi prices are mid-prices, rounded, with the favorite's price shown. Lines are the median of nine books. The Texans, Giants, Saints and 49ers are on bye. Every spread ladder and both lines of the fork are on the Week 8 schedule.
The Oracle Fork: Lamar Jackson, Ravens at Bills
The status: unresolved. Jackson sprained his left ankle on Oct. 4 and missed three games. On Wednesday, Oct. 28, he was a full participant in practice for the first time in 24 days, per ESPN. Coach Jesse Minter would not say whether he starts, and no official game designation exists until Friday's report. Buffalo's Josh Allen is not on the report.
The two lines: with Jackson, our model has the Bills by 3.6. With Tyler Huntley, Bills by 8.1. The nine-book line is Bills by 3, a hair past our with-Jackson line, and Kalshi has Buffalo at 62¢ with Baltimore at 39¢. Read that as the market pricing Jackson in, which is what a full Wednesday practice should do to a price.
What it means: if Jackson starts, we're within a point of the market and this is a quiet game on our board. If Huntley starts, our line is five points further toward Buffalo than the market's. Baltimore comes in 4-3 after a 35-13 home loss to Cincinnati; Buffalo is 5-1, off a bye, with the league's highest-scoring offense. No prop publishes from a forked game, so every Ravens–Bills prop stays flagged until the quarterback is settled. Live board: Ravens at Bills.
The QB-adjusted game: Eagles at Commanders, Sunday night
This is not a fork. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve and expected to miss the season, so Tanner McKee starts and the game gets one line, labeled QB-adjusted. Philadelphia is 2-5 and has lost five straight, most recently 38-21 to Dallas. Washington is 1-4-1 and gets Jayden Daniels back at full practice.
Our adjusted line: Commanders by 6.9. The nine-book line: Commanders by 6. Kalshi: Washington 70¢. We're within a point of the market, and on a QB-adjusted game nothing that depends on the game line publishes anyway. Live board: Eagles at Commanders.
Tonight: Panthers at Packers
Carolina comes to Lambeau 3-3 and leading the NFC South after a 43-13 loss at home to Tampa Bay. Green Bay is 4-3 after a 20-17 loss in Detroit. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate: Bryce Young (knee) practiced in full all week, and Jordan Love isn't on the report.
Our line: Packers by 4.9. Nine-book line: Green Bay by 3.5. Kalshi: Packers 64¢, Panthers 37¢. That's a 1.4-point lean toward Green Bay, below our lean tiers. The injury story is Carolina's: four players are out, including both starting guards, and right tackle Taylor Moton and cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are on injured reserve, while Green Bay is still without Micah Parsons. Tommy Tremble's receptions under, one of the week's HIGH-tier props, is in this game. Live board: Panthers at Packers.
Where our line and the market disagree
Chiefs at Broncos is the widest gap on the slate, and it's held. Our ratings have Kansas City by 3.8; the books have Denver by 1.5, and Kalshi has the Chiefs at 53¢. A five-point disagreement on a game where both quarterbacks are healthy goes to a person before it prints, and our ratings were built before Wednesday's practice. Denver is 5-2 and has won three straight. Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 in Week 1 but comes off a 20-3 loss at Seattle in which it never reached the red zone. Live board: Chiefs at Broncos.
Five games carry a Watch-level lean:
- Colts at Jaguars. Our line: Jaguars by 7.0. Market: Jacksonville by 10. A three-point lean toward Indianapolis, against a Colts roster that just fired its general manager and traded DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson. Jacksonville comes off a bye. Game page.
- Raiders at Jets. Our line: Jets by 3.9. Market: New York by 1.5. A 2.4-point lean toward the Jets. Las Vegas has lost four straight after a 3-0 start, though Kirk Cousins leads the league with 16 touchdown passes. Game page.
- Chargers at Rams. Our line: Rams by 8.7. Market: Los Angeles by 6.5. The Chargers are 0-6, off a bye, with the league's lowest-scoring offense. Game page.
- Patriots at Dolphins. Our line: Patriots by 4.8. Market: New England by 7. A 2.2-point lean toward Miami, which won its first game last week, 28-25 at the Jets behind Malik Willis. Game page.
- Titans at Bengals. Our line: Bengals by 9.4. Market: Cincinnati by 11.5. A 2.1-point lean toward Tennessee in the week's biggest mismatch. The open item on Cincinnati's side is Ja'Marr Chase, who sat out Wednesday with an ankle and a rest designation. Game page.
The rest of the slate
Vikings at Lions. The only unbeaten team left, Minnesota is 6-0 and allows a league-best 12.3 points a game. Our line: Lions by 2.5, against a market of Detroit by 3.5. Kalshi: Lions 62¢. Game page.
Cardinals at Cowboys. Our line: Cowboys by 6.3, against Dallas by 7. Kalshi: Cowboys 75¢. Dallas ran for 204 yards in Monday's win in Philadelphia; Arizona is 2-5. Game page.
Browns at Steelers. Both teams are 5-2 and tied atop the AFC North, and Cleveland won the Week 4 meeting 27-24. Our line: Steelers by 3.2, against Pittsburgh by 3.5. Kalshi: Steelers 65¢. Game page.
Falcons at Buccaneers. Our line: Buccaneers by 3.7, against Tampa Bay by 2.5. Kalshi: Buccaneers 56¢. Baker Mayfield was a full participant Wednesday after throwing just 11 passes in his first game back from a thumb injury. Game page.
Bears at Seahawks, Monday night. Our line: Seahawks by 3.4, against Seattle by 3. Kalshi: Seahawks 61¢. Chicago files its first injury report Thursday, so Caleb Williams's practice status is the item to check before Monday. Game page.
What our screen flags right now
Three moneyline positions clear the bar on our edge board, all MODERATE:
| Game | Side | Fair value | Kalshi (Thu 7 PM) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders at Jets | Jets | 55.3% | 53¢ |
| Falcons at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | 58.8% | 56¢ |
| Patriots at Dolphins | Dolphins | 26.8% | 24¢ |
Fair value here is the books' consensus line run through the market's own win curve, not our model's opinion. A position is that consensus disagreeing with Kalshi's price. In all three, our model's lean points the same way. Three game totals (Colts–Jaguars, Patriots–Dolphins, Falcons–Buccaneers) also sit at MODERATE on the board. Check the price you'd actually pay, with the taker fee, on the fee calculator before any contract.
The prop board: six Plays, 78 Watch rows
Thursday evening's run priced 412 player props against Kalshi's strikes. Three hundred twenty-eight were flagged and don't publish. Seventy-eight are Watch rows: they render on the prop board with their label and are capped at MODERATE. Six are Plays.
Tommy Tremble under 2.5 receptions, Panthers at Packers (tonight). HIGH. We make the over 38%; Kalshi prices it at 39.5¢, and the under cost 61¢ to buy.
Bhayshul Tuten under 2.5 receptions, Jaguars vs. Colts. HIGH. We make the over 37% against Kalshi's 41¢; the under cost 60¢.
Justin Jefferson under 6.5 receptions, Vikings at Lions. MODERATE. We make the over 38% against Kalshi's 39.5¢; the under cost 62¢.
Kyle Pitts under 49.5 and under 39.5 receiving yards, Falcons at Buccaneers. MODERATE. Kalshi prices the overs at 32.5¢ and 44¢; the unders cost 69¢ and 57¢.
Jaylen Warren under 24.5 receiving yards, Steelers vs. Browns. MODERATE. Kalshi prices the over at 49.5¢; the under cost 52¢.
Receiving yards is one of the stat families whose display probability is held while its calibration is under review, so on those three rows the board shows the side, the tier and the price, and leaves our number blank. Every strike on every ladder, with the books beside Kalshi, is on the Oracle Ladder.
When this page updates
Friday, Oct. 30, the official injury reports land and Baltimore may name its starter; when it does, the Ravens–Bills fork collapses to one line and its props re-price. Chiefs–Broncos comes off review once the ratings regenerate. Inactives post 90 minutes before each kickoff. Every game page and the predictions board move on their own. Trade responsibly: the market is pricing all of this, and you don't have to agree with it.