Part of The 7 OraclesThee Oracle
Three live panels. What's moving, why it's moving, what's next. Refreshed across five global trading slots, with a forecast calibrated against our own measured track record.
Five refresh slots per day: Asia post-open, Europe post-open, US pre-open, US midday, US pre-close. The dashboard auto-polls every 60s and swaps in fresh data when a new slot lands.
The Reading
Fed funds rate trajectory contracts across the 2026–2027 FOMC meeting calendar are sweeping the volume leaderboard, with traders pricing a steep implied cut path: the Apr 2027 upper-bound contracts show 84¢ confidence rates stay above 0.50% but only 45¢ confidence they hold above 4.25%, embedding roughly 75–100bps of cumulative easing from current levels by spring 2027. The highest-confidence single trade is the Apr 28, 2027 above-2.75% contract at 80¢ YES — the spread between that and the above-4.25% contract at 45¢ YES encodes a dominant market view that the Fed lands in the 3.00–4.25% corridor, making any position fading a rate floor below 2.75% by that date look mispriced at current levels.
Panel 1 · What's Moving
Top 10 markets by composite mover score · free to read
- 01KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
69¢
+35.0pp
vol 150
- 02KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
78¢
-21.0pp
vol 7
- 03KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
72¢
-20.0pp
vol 10
- 04KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
78¢
-18.0pp
vol 2
- 05KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
45¢
+17.0pp
vol 166
- 06KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?
27¢
-17.0pp
vol 33
- 07KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
80¢
-16.0pp
vol 5
- 08KALSHIscore 25Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
84¢
-16.0pp
vol 5
- 09KALSHIscore 23Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
53¢
+14.0pp
vol 1
- 10KALSHIscore 22Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
84¢
-13.0pp
vol 574
AI-POWERED · UNIQUE
Ask any market question. Get a data-backed probability.
What is this?
The Oracle is our AI-powered market intelligence tool. You type a question — "What's the probability of a US-China trade deal before November?" — and it gives you a probability estimate with reasoning, drawing from live market data, historical base rates, and current news signals.
It's not magic. It's structured thinking at machine speed. When there's no Kalshi market on something yet, this is your starting point for building your own probability estimate.
Real-World Example
→ The Question
You type: "What's the chance that Apple announces a major AI product in Q3 2026?" The Oracle analyzes: launch cadence history, analyst expectations, recent leaks, comparable tech company patterns.
Output: 58% probability, reasoning included. You compare this to whatever Kalshi or Polymarket is offering for Apple AI markets. If the market says 38%, you have an edge thesis.
✅Action: Use The Oracle when there's no obvious base rate. Let it structure your thinking before you build a position.
Bottom line: When you don't know where to start, start here. The Oracle gives you a structured starting probability to work from.
Full guide →What Is Thee Oracle?
Thee Oracle is a live prediction market intelligence dashboard. It pulls from twelve Supabase tables we already populate — market signals, news with entity links, cross-platform edge detections, commodity fusion signals, political snapshots, weather edge alerts, our own track record — scores every market on a composite mover index, finds the catalyst behind each move, and forecasts forward against analog setups from the last 90 days.
The dashboard is split for SEO and access reasons. Panel 1 — What's Moving — is free and indexable. Panels 2 and 3 are Picks Pro: the catalyst behind each move and a track-record-weighted forecast for direction, price, and confidence.
How Refresh Works
Five slots per day, timed to global market opens: Asia post-open, Europe post-open, US pre-open, US midday, and US pre-close. A single Supabase cron tick checks every fifteen minutes whether we are inside an active slot, and only spends Claude tokens when a real refresh is due. Outside-slot ticks are silent. The dashboard auto-polls every sixty seconds and swaps in the new snapshot when it lands — no page reload required.
When to Use This Tool
Use Thee Oracle to start your trading session. Panel 1 tells you which markets are alive right now. Panel 2 tells you why. Panel 3 tells you what we'd do about it, with the analog hit rate so you can size the conviction yourself. Pair with the Arb Scanner to act on cross-platform signals it surfaces.
Scope
Politics, macro, crypto, commodities (silver, gold, oil, copper), and weather. Sports markets are excluded by design — Gridiron Edge handles those. Thee Oracle is the macro-and-news synthesis brain.