Guides & Analysis
In-depth prediction market guides from The 7 Oracles — FSWA Award Winners, covering Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and FanDuel.
Daily: 7 Oracles NBA Report
Today's report →Fri, Nov 6
$611K on the Sixers, a 14¢ Prop Gap, and the Raptors at 63¢ vs 72¢
Thu, Nov 5
$337K on the Warriors at 70.5¢, Giannis 12+ Rebounds Priced 10.8¢ Apart, and a 49/51 Coin Flip in Phoenix
Wed, Nov 4
$995K on the Sixers at 44.5¢, a 20¢ Derrick White Gap With Tatum Resting, and Anthony Edwards Out in Houston
Prediction Markets in Kansas: Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig
Which prediction markets work in Kansas: Kalshi, Polymarket US, Novig, DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts, each from our state availability data.
Kalshi's Official MCP Server: What It Covers and What to Add
Kalshi's hosted MCP connector reads its markets, prices and your portfolio. What it covers, what one venue can't show, and a dual-server setup.
Kalshi 15-Minute Bitcoin Strategy: What Our Tools Read
The one rule our bot trades on Kalshi's 15-minute bitcoin market, what it has returned after fees, what failed, and why a free bot usually loses to the fee.
How Kalshi Settles Fed Decision Markets
Kalshi's Fed decision contracts settle on what the FOMC does at one meeting. The rules, the two Fed series, and what happens if a meeting is canceled.
Fed Odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs CME Futures, and Why They Differ
Kalshi, Polymarket and CME futures all price the next FOMC decision. What each one actually measures, and when a gap between them is real.
EV on a Fed Contract After Fees: Kalshi vs Polymarket US
What the taker fee does to the edge on a Fed contract, venue by venue, with a worked example at 79 cents and why a thin edge shrinks fastest.
Fade the Field Ep. 22: NFL Week 9 Picks, the Bengals–Falcons Over and a Browns Upset in New Orleans
NFL Week 9 picks and player props from Coach Gene Clemons and Chris James: Bears −6 against Tampa Bay, Broncos −2.5 at Carolina, the Browns to beat the Saints outright, Commanders +4.5 against the Rams, the Bengals–Falcons over 52.5 with a shot at 60, Packers–Patriots over 45.5, Texans–Chargers under 40.5, a Josh Allen anytime touchdown and Javonte Williams over 66 rushing yards, every one at the price it read on tape.
Combo Edge Builder vs Kalshi Combos vs ContractTax
Three ways to handle a Kalshi combo: build it, grade it or check the quote. Correlation, fees, sizing and hedging compared, with each cell sourced.
Polymarket US vs Kalshi NFL Prices After Fees: Week 9 (Nov. 4, 2026)
On the evening of Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, 15 NFL Week 9 games still to start had a game-winner market on both Polymarket US and Kalshi. Using Kalshi's prices at 7:19 p.m. ET and our latest Polymarket US snapshot of each market, time-stamped 2:09 p.m. to 7:18 p.m. ET, and priced as the cost to buy one contract after each venue's taker fee, Polymarket US was cheaper on 12 of the 30 sides, Kalshi was cheaper on 2, and 16 were the same price (within half a cent).
Polymarket US vs Kalshi NBA Prices After Fees (Nov. 4, 2026)
On the evening of Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, 11 NBA games for Nov. 5 and 6 still to start had a game-winner market on both Polymarket US and Kalshi. Using Kalshi's prices at 7:19 p.m. ET and our latest Polymarket US snapshot of each market, time-stamped 2:09 p.m. to 7:18 p.m. ET, and priced as the cost to buy one contract after each venue's taker fee, Polymarket US was cheaper on 9 of the 22 sides, Kalshi was cheaper on 8, and 5 were the same price (within half a cent).
What 3,806 Polymarket US 5-Minute Bitcoin Windows Show
Every Polymarket US 5-minute bitcoin window we logged from Oct. 22 to Nov. 4, 2026: Up settled 49.9% of the time, the longest run was 12, and the median move was 4.5 bps.
Polymarket US 5-Minute Bitcoin Bots: What a Round Trip Costs
What the Polymarket US taker fee and the spread do to a 5-minute bitcoin round trip: 3.48¢ in fees at 50¢, plus a 1¢ median spread, before a bot makes a cent.
NFL Week 8 Player Props Results: 2–2 at PLAY, and Where the Record Stands
Every NFL Week 8 player prop that reached PLAY on our board, graded against Kalshi's settlement: 2–2 with 1 void, −38¢ after fees. Season record 200–179, 11 void.
Midterm Winners Who Moved the 2028 Market: Ossoff Takes the Top Spot on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff went from 12¢ to 17¢ and took the top of Kalshi's 2028 ladder. J.D. Vance fell from 20¢ to 13¢. Every move across the midterms, measured.
How Accurate Were Prediction Markets in the 2026 Midterms? The Scorecard
The scorecard we pre-registered in August: Kalshi's favorite won 31 of 32 called Senate races and 53 of 53 called House districts. Race by race, misses included.
The 47-Seat Floor: Democrats Need 4 of 9 — Senate Seat-Count Odds on Election Day
Democrats start Election Day with 47 Senate seats the market treats as settled. Nine races decide control, and they need four. Kalshi has Senate control at 76.5¢, but its seat-count board prices exactly 51 seats at 7¢ against about 11% in our simulation.
Polymarket US vs. Kalshi: College Football Prices for Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026
As of 2:33 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, 31 college football games still to kick off had a game-winner market on both Polymarket US and Kalshi. Priced as the cost to buy one contract after each venue's taker fee, Polymarket US was cheaper on 32 of the 62 sides, Kalshi was cheaper on 1, and 29 were the same price (within half a cent). Game by game, including the marquee games, the widest gaps and the Heisman board.
Kalshi & Polymarket in Gemini: Google's Connected Apps, Explained
Google launched a preview that brings outside apps into Gemini and Search. Here's how to put live Kalshi and Polymarket US prices inside Gemini today: free, no API key, one URL.
NFL Week 8 Predictions 2026: Every Game at Thursday's Kalshi Price, With the Lamar Jackson Fork
NFL Week 8 predictions for all 14 games: every game at Thursday's Kalshi price beside the nine-book line, the Lamar Jackson Oracle Fork for Ravens at Bills, the Eagles' QB-adjusted line with Tanner McKee, three moneyline positions on our board and six prop Plays.
Ella Langley Odds: 92¢ for VMA Song of the Summer, Then a Penny. Now She's the CMA Entertainer of the Year Favorite.
Kalshi had Ella Langley trading at 92¢ to win Song of the Summer at the 2026 VMAs at 10:26 p.m. ET on Sept. 27. By 10:37 she was a penny, and Ariana Grande, last traded at 20¢, was at 99¢. Billboard's chart said Langley; MTV's fan vote said Grande. Here's the full tape, and what it means for her nine CMA nominations on Nov. 18, where Kalshi has her 92¢ bid / 96¢ ask for Entertainer of the Year.
My 11-Year-Old Built a Game Where You Play President. Here's What 23 Elections Taught Me About Reading Markets
Road to Office puts you in the Oval Office for 23 real elections, from FDR to Trump. Here's how it was built and what it says about momentum, the economy and reading a market.
The Last 60 Seconds of a Kalshi Bitcoin 15-Minute Market: We Tested the 12:30 Rule on Two Weeks of Tape
A popular rule says to stop buying 80¢+ favorites after 12:30 in Kalshi's 15-minute bitcoin markets. We ran it against 1,258 windows of trades and a 5-second order book. There is no 12:30 cliff, the book does not fall apart late, and the final minute was the best stretch for favorites. The reason is the settlement rule: a 60-print average. Here is the data, the math, and the final-minute lane we now run in public.
DWTS Double Elimination Odds: Don't Just Buy the Favorite
Kalshi has Jackson Olson 71¢ and Tyler Cameron 58¢ to go home in tonight's DWTS double elimination. Gene and Dane on the No side and Ezra Frech at 67¢.
Ohio Senate Showdown: Why Prediction Markets Back Sherrod Brown While Forecasters Call It a Toss-Up
Kalshi has Sherrod Brown at 68¢ while Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato call Ohio a toss-up. Here are the October polls and the other Senate toss-ups.
Ohio Senate Odds: Sherrod Brown Hits 70¢ and Is Still a Toss-Up — Plus Mike Washington Jr.'s Ladder and the DWTS Double Elimination
Sherrod Brown is 70¢ to win Ohio while all three raters say toss-up. Plus Mike Washington Jr.'s rushing ladder and the DWTS double-elimination board.
NFL Week 7 Predictions 2026: Every Game at Friday's Kalshi Price, After the Final Injury Report
NFL Week 7 predictions written after Friday's final injury report: every remaining game at its Friday Kalshi price and nine-book line, two Oracle Forks (Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield), the Eagles' QB-adjusted line with Tanner McKee, 60 players ruled out, and the two props that clear our board after Saturday's run.
Is Kalshi Legit? Who Regulates It, Who Is on the Other Side, and Who Decides the Result
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-designated exchange. Each market's rules name the settlement source, and the other side of your trade is another member, not Kalshi.
Is He Playing or Not? The NBA Injury Report Is Killing Your Edge
One questionable tag wrecks an hour of prep. Dane Martinez on the NBA injury report and the free tool showing who's out, who gained when he sat, and the price.
Dancing with the Stars Odds: It's Not Who Wins. It's Who Survives.
Ezra Frech is 57¢ to win DWTS Season 35 on Kalshi. The value is in the weekly elimination market — Coach Gene Clemons on why fan bases, not dancers, go home.
Patriots at Bears, Simulated 100,000 Times: Our Ratings Have New England Better. Kalshi Has Chicago at 60.5 Cents.
Patriots vs Bears, Thursday Night Football Week 7: New England is No. 2 in our power ratings and Chicago is No. 7, yet the Bears are 3-point favorites and 60.5 cents on Kalshi. We ran the game 100,000 times on our key-number lattice, lined every spread rung up against the Kalshi ladder, and checked where our model's own line sits. Short version: 0.6 points off the market, no position.
Bitcoin Edge Went 14-5 This Week. Here's Why It Worked, Why It Won't Always, and What We're Changing
A full report on our hottest tool week yet: Bitcoin Edge went 14-5 (+8.5¢ per contract after fees) and the 15-minute momentum rule went 38-11. Why it happened, the holes in the numbers, the 15-minute buckets that still lose, the macro and dealer-positioning backdrop, and the changes we're making to the tools.
Haaland Goalscorer Odds and the Premier League Matchweek 7 Preview: Every Fixture Priced on Kalshi
Erling Haaland has scored in 5 of his 6 Kalshi-listed matches this season while trading near 52¢ to score before kickoff. Here's every Matchweek 7 fixture priced on Kalshi, the goals ladders for Man City–Ipswich and Brentford–Liverpool, and the goalscorer record for Palmer, Isak, Saka and Bruno Fernandes.
We Ran the 2026 Senate 10,000 Times: Kalshi vs. the Pundits
We simulated all 35 Senate races 10,000 times off live Kalshi prices. Democrats and independents keep control in 71.5% of runs, against 69¢ in Kalshi's balance-of-power market. Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections, run through the same engine, come out barely above a coin flip.
Fade the Field Ep. 20: NFL Week 6 Picks, the Saints–Giants Over and a Three-Man Touchdown Combo
NFL Week 6 picks and player props from Coach Gene Clemons and Chris James: Ravens stepped up to −5.5 at Cleveland, the Giants to beat the Saints outright, the Saints–Giants and Cowboys–Packers overs, Titans–Colts under 44.5, Tyler Shough over 275 passing yards and an anytime-touchdown combo of Derrick Henry, Josh Allen and Kenneth Walker, every one at the price it read on tape.
Hot September CPI Puts the October Fed Hike Back on the Board: Kalshi Hike Odds Jump From 15% to 37%, Gold and Silver Sold, Oil Up
Headline CPI printed 3.7% against a 3.6% call and core 2.6% against 2.5%. Within the hour a quarter-point hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting went from 15.5% to 37% on Kalshi, the 2-year jumped 14 basis points, the dollar hit an 18-month high, gold and silver dropped, bitcoin softened and oil rallied. Here is what the print did to the Fed Rate Tracker, and what it means for the Kalshi 15-minute and hourly gold, silver, oil and bitcoin markets.
What Happens If a Game Ends in a Tie on Kalshi? The Settlement Rule, Explained
An NFL tie on Kalshi pays 50¢ on each side of a team contract when no Tie strike is listed, and the separate Tie market settles Yes. Here is the rule, quoted, and what it means for your position.
Kalshi Tweeted Ossoff Out of the 2028 Race. Should an Exchange Be Doing That?
Kalshi Politics posted Ossoff's 'zero interest' quote next to a 66% market. Ossoff slipped, Newsom and Vance ticked up. NYSE doesn't do this. A former DFS insider on why the venue can't also be the tout, and who inside knew the post was coming.
Kalshi Says the Price Moved and Your Order Didn't Match? Here's Why, and the Fix
When the price moves before your Kalshi order goes through, the contract you saw is gone. Switch the ticket to Limit, name your price and let the order rest. Here is how the ticket works.
If a Player Doesn't Play, Does Kalshi Void the Contract? The DNP Rule, Explained
Kalshi doesn't void a player prop when the player sits. It settles to a fair price set before the game. One snap and the contract settles on the stats. Here is the rule, quoted.
NFL Week 6 Predictions 2026: The QB and Injury Forks Behind Every Line on Kalshi
NFL Week 6 predictions built for an early week with no injury reports yet: every game at its Monday Kalshi price and DraftKings line, the QB and injury forks that decide each one (Lamar Jackson, Michael Penix Jr., Baker Mayfield, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel), and where the carries and targets went the last time each player sat.
Kalshi Combo Not Working? Every Fix for Invalid Combo and Payout Unavailable
Invalid combo, payout unavailable, or Kalshi won't let you combo? It's almost always eligibility timing, a closed leg or no live quote. Fix it in 60 seconds.
Man City Relegation Odds: The League Leaders Trade at 29¢ to Go Down
Manchester City are top of the Premier League at five wins from five, and Kalshi prices them at 28¢-29¢ to be relegated. The 114-charge verdict turned City's season into two markets at once. Here is what each contract is really pricing, and how to read it.
Texas Senate Odds: The Polls Are Wrong About Talarico vs. Paxton — Follow the Markets
Kalshi has Democrat James Talarico at 63¢ to win the Texas Senate seat, up from 47¢ on Sept. 8. Cook and Sabato still call Talarico vs. Paxton a toss-up and Inside Elections says Lean R. Here's the price chart, why $131 million in GOP money didn't move it, and the math on 63¢.
Kansas Senate Odds: Marshall vs Hamilton — Is Kalshi Wrong?
Kalshi has Roger Marshall at 63¢ and Adam Hamilton at 38¢ for Kansas Senate. A Kansan's case the market has it backwards — and the case that it doesn't.
PFL Africa Morocco Results & Predictions: Kane Stops Medkouri, Three Finals Set in Casablanca
PFL Africa Morocco results from Saturday, October 10 in Casablanca: Abdoulaye Kane stopped hometown Badr Medkouri with elbows in the first round, nine of ten market favorites won, and the welterweight, lightweight and bantamweight finals are set for Kigali on December 12. Every result next to the line that was on the board, plus what Kalshi listed.
NFL Week 5 Predictions 2026: Best Favorites, Underdogs, Overs, Unders and Player Props on Kalshi
NFL Week 5 predictions from the Kalshi board: Texans, Jaguars and Bengals priced as the biggest favorites, the closest underdogs, every game total at its 50/50 line, the five player props where Kalshi and the books disagree, and what our screener flags against the price.
The 7 Oracles App Is Live on Google Play: Kalshi 15-Minute Markets in Your Pocket
The free 7 Oracles app is live on Android. It puts Kalshi's 15-minute gold, silver, bitcoin and oil windows on your phone with the model's read and a countdown to close, plus NFL edges, the Play of the Day and push alerts. iPhone is in Apple review.
Alaska Senate Odds: Peltola vs Sullivan — Markets vs Pundits
Kalshi has Mary Peltola at 77¢ to flip Dan Sullivan's Alaska Senate seat. Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all still call it a toss-up. Here's the gap, why the market reads it that way, and the math on whether 77¢ is still a trade.