Guides & Analysis
In-depth prediction market guides from Benny Ricciardi — FSWA Award Winner, Former CEO of 4Deep Sports, Former CMO at FTN Network, Former Bond Trader.
DraftKings Prediction Markets: The Complete Guide (2026)
Everything you need to know about trading DraftKings prediction markets in 2026 — how they work, where the edge is, and free tools to find mispriced contracts.
DraftKings Prediction Market Picks — Week of March 24, 2026
Benny Ricciardi's DraftKings prediction market picks for the week of March 24, 2026 — EV-positive contracts, Kelly sizing, and the edge behind each trade.
How the Polymarket Mispricing Scanner Works
Every morning a two-agent Bayesian swarm scans Polymarket for mispricings. Here's exactly what it does, why it works, and how to use the results.
I Saw a Twitter Thread About an Options Trader Who Cracked Polymarket — So I Built the Tool
A fired options trader opened Polymarket and immediately saw what nobody else was seeing: the whole market ignores time. He made $131K in 3 months. I read the thread, did the math, and built the Theta Edge calculator.
Bayesian Mispricing: The Spec in Plain English
How the Polymarket Mispricing Scanner uses two AI agents, a Bayesian swarm, and Kelly sizing — explained without the math jargon.
Kelly Criterion for Prediction Markets: Stop Overbetting Your Edge
The Kelly Criterion is the mathematically optimal position sizing formula for any positive-EV bet. Here's how to apply it to Kalshi and why fractional Kelly is the professional standard.
Expected Value Is the Only Number That Matters in Prediction Markets
Every prediction market trade is a probability bet. If you're not calculating expected value before you click, you're gambling. Here's the framework that turns a Kalshi price into a trade signal.
Cross-Platform Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: How to Find and Trade Price Gaps
When Kalshi and Polymarket price the same event differently, one of them is wrong. Here's how to use KL divergence to identify exploitable gaps and what to check before you trade them.
Bayesian Reasoning in Prediction Markets: How Sharp Traders Update Their Beliefs
Sharp prediction market traders don't flip their views on every news headline. They update with Bayes theorem — a mathematically rigorous framework for revising probability as evidence arrives.
Base Rates: The Starting Point Every Prediction Market Trader Ignores
Before you analyze any specific prediction market, you need a base rate. Here's how historical frequency data anchors your probability estimates and where prediction markets most often diverge from history.
Soccer Prediction Markets: Trading Football on Kalshi and Polymarket
How to trade soccer prediction markets — World Cup, Champions League, Premier League, and MLS on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Politics Prediction Markets: Kalshi vs Polymarket for Political Events
How to trade political prediction markets — elections, legislation, Fed decisions, and more. Kalshi vs Polymarket compared for US political trading.
NFL Prediction Markets: How to Trade Football on Kalshi
Everything you need to know about NFL prediction markets on Kalshi — Super Bowl odds, game winners, player props, and combo strategies.
NBA Prediction Markets: Kalshi vs Polymarket for Basketball Betting
How to trade NBA prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket — player props, game outcomes, and championship odds compared.
MLB Prediction Markets: Trading Baseball on Kalshi
How to trade MLB prediction markets on Kalshi — World Series odds, division winners, game outcomes, and player awards.
Macro Prediction Markets: Trading Fed Rates, Inflation, and GDP on Kalshi
How to trade macroeconomic prediction markets on Kalshi — Fed rate decisions, CPI inflation, GDP growth, and recession probability markets.
Crypto Prediction Markets: Trading Bitcoin and Ethereum on Kalshi
How to trade crypto prediction markets on Kalshi — Bitcoin price targets, ETH milestones, and how crypto markets compare to Polymarket.
Reading Kalshi Like a Bond Desk: Prediction Markets as Derivatives
How a bond trading background reframes prediction markets as mispriced probability instruments. The framework I use to find edge on Kalshi using tools from fixed income desks.
Polymarket for US Traders in 2026: Legal Status, Access, and Setup Guide
What US traders need to know about Polymarket in 2026 — the current legal landscape, how the platform works, what you can and cannot do, and how it fits alongside regulated alternatives.
Kalshi vs Polymarket for Sports Markets: Liquidity, Depth, and Quality Compared
A detailed comparison of sports market quality on Kalshi versus Polymarket — covering liquidity, market depth, available categories, and which platform gives sports traders better pricing.
How to Read Prediction Market Prices: A Beginner's Guide to Implied Probability
Prediction market prices explained from scratch — what the cents mean, how to convert them to probabilities, what the vig costs you, and the key concepts every new trader needs to understand.
How Kalshi Combos Work: Mechanics, Probability, and When to Use Them
A clear breakdown of Kalshi combo mechanics — how combined probability is calculated, what the vig looks like across legs, and the specific situations where combos offer genuine edge.
FanDuel Predicts Review 2026: Pros, Cons, and State Availability
An honest review of FanDuel Predicts — how it works, state availability, how it compares to Kalshi and DraftKings, and whether it is worth your time as a prediction market trader.
DraftKings Predictions Review 2026: Honest Pros, Cons, and Best Use Cases
An honest, detailed review of DraftKings Predictions — what works, what does not, how it compares to Kalshi and Polymarket, and the specific situations where DraftKings Predict is the right call.