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On the evening of Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026, 11 NBA games for Nov. 5 and 6 still to start had a game-winner market on both Polymarket US and Kalshi. Using Kalshi's prices at 7:19 p.m. ET and our latest Polymarket US snapshot of each market, time-stamped 2:09 p.m. to 7:18 p.m. ET, and priced as the cost to buy one contract after each venue's taker fee, Polymarket US was cheaper on 9 of the 22 sides, Kalshi was cheaper on 8, and 5 were the same price (within half a cent).
The gaps run wider than they did on the NFL board and they cut both ways: 12 of the 17 that clear half a cent are about a cent or less per contract, and the rest run two to three cents. The widest of the read was L.A. Lakers in Portland at L.A. Lakers: 59.71¢ all-in on Kalshi against 62.65¢ on Polymarket US (snapshot 7:18 p.m. ET), 3.0¢ apart.
Every price below is the cost to buy one contract on that team to win: the venue's best ask plus its taker fee at that price. Kalshi was read at 7:19 p.m. ET. Each Polymarket US price is our latest snapshot of that market, with its own time in the table, between 2:09 p.m. and 7:18 p.m. ET. Our snapshot table records a market when its book changes, so an older stamp means an older last recorded change, and the two venues' times are not always the same minute. Prices move all day, so treat this as a snapshot, not a quote. Our Best Price board and Arb Scanner track the live gap.
Why the two venues print different prices
- Tick size. In this read, both venues quoted these NBA markets in whole cents, so most of the gap is the two books sitting a cent or two apart, not the tick.
- Fees. Both venues charge a taker fee that scales with price × (1 − price), so it peaks at 50¢ and shrinks toward 0¢ and 100¢. Polymarket US's published rate is slightly lower than Kalshi's. See Polymarket US fees and our Kalshi fee calculator for the exact schedules.
- Two books. Each venue has its own order book, so the venue that's cheaper on one team isn't always the cheaper one on the other team in the same game.
Widest gaps on the board
| Game | To win | Kalshi all-in | Polymarket US all-in | Polymarket US as of (ET) | Cheaper after fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland at L.A. Lakers | L.A. Lakers | 59.71¢ | 62.65¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 3.0¢ |
| Minnesota at New Orleans | New Orleans | 42.69¢ | 44.70¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 2.0¢ |
| Miami at Golden State | Golden State | 65.61¢ | 63.64¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 2.0¢ |
| Philadelphia at Cleveland | Philadelphia | 51.75¢ | 53.73¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 2.0¢ |
| Oklahoma City at Memphis | Oklahoma City | 53.75¢ | 55.73¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 2.0¢ |
| Boston at Charlotte | Charlotte | 30.44¢ | 29.40¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ |
Every game on both venues, still to start
| Start (ET) | Game | To win | Kalshi: ask → all-in | Polymarket US: ask → all-in | Polymarket US as of (ET) | Cheaper after fees |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu. 9 p.m. | Orlando at Phoenix | Orlando | 48¢ → 49.75¢ | 49¢ → 50.74¢ | 2:09 p.m. | Kalshi by 1.0¢ |
| Phoenix | 52¢ → 53.75¢ | 52¢ → 53.73¢ | 2:09 p.m. | Same | ||
| Thu. 10 p.m. | Miami at Golden State | Miami | 38¢ → 39.65¢ | 39¢ → 40.65¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 1.0¢ |
| Golden State | 64¢ → 65.61¢ | 62¢ → 63.64¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 2.0¢ | ||
| Fri. 7 p.m. | Boston at Charlotte | Boston | 73¢ → 74.38¢ | 73¢ → 74.37¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Same |
| Charlotte | 29¢ → 30.44¢ | 28¢ → 29.40¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ | ||
| Fri. 7 p.m. | Washington at Atlanta | Washington | 35¢ → 36.59¢ | 36¢ → 37.60¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 1.0¢ |
| Atlanta | 68¢ → 69.52¢ | 67¢ → 68.54¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ | ||
| Fri. 7:30 p.m. | Philadelphia at Cleveland | Philadelphia | 50¢ → 51.75¢ | 52¢ → 53.73¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 2.0¢ |
| Cleveland | 52¢ → 53.75¢ | 51¢ → 52.74¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ | ||
| Fri. 8 p.m. | Minnesota at New Orleans | Minnesota | 61¢ → 62.67¢ | 60¢ → 61.67¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ |
| New Orleans | 41¢ → 42.69¢ | 43¢ → 44.70¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 2.0¢ | ||
| Fri. 8 p.m. | Toronto at Milwaukee | Toronto | 74¢ → 75.35¢ | 73¢ → 74.37¢ | 3:10 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ |
| Milwaukee | 29¢ → 30.44¢ | 28¢ → 29.40¢ | 3:10 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ | ||
| Fri. 8 p.m. | Oklahoma City at Memphis | Oklahoma City | 52¢ → 53.75¢ | 54¢ → 55.73¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 2.0¢ |
| Memphis | 50¢ → 51.75¢ | 50¢ → 51.74¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Same | ||
| Fri. 8 p.m. | Utah at Dallas | Utah | 32¢ → 33.52¢ | 32¢ → 33.51¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Same |
| Dallas | 70¢ → 71.47¢ | 71¢ → 72.43¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 1.0¢ | ||
| Fri. 10 p.m. | San Antonio at Sacramento | San Antonio | 88¢ → 88.74¢ | 87¢ → 87.79¢ | 6:16 p.m. | Polymarket US by 0.9¢ |
| Sacramento | 15¢ → 15.89¢ | 15¢ → 15.89¢ | 6:16 p.m. | Same | ||
| Fri. 10 p.m. | Portland at L.A. Lakers | Portland | 43¢ → 44.72¢ | 42¢ → 43.69¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Polymarket US by 1.0¢ |
| L.A. Lakers | 58¢ → 59.71¢ | 61¢ → 62.65¢ | 7:18 p.m. | Kalshi by 3.0¢ |
How we priced it
- Polymarket US: the latest row for each game-winner market in PredictionMarketsPicks' Polymarket US snapshot table at the Kalshi read, with that row's own time. The table records a market when its book changes and at least every six hours. The price to buy the other team is 100¢ minus the best bid. All 11 games on both venues had a usable row; none were dropped.
- Kalshi: Kalshi's public market data for its NBA game-winner markets, read at 7:19 p.m. ET.
- All-in price: best ask plus that venue's taker fee at that price, per contract. Kalshi rounds its fee up to the next cent per order, so a one-contract order pays slightly more than shown; at 100 contracts the difference disappears.
- Same price: a gap under half a cent (0.50¢). All-in prices show two decimals so you can see why a pair counts as the same.
- Only games that had not started, and only books with both a bid and an ask no more than 15¢ apart.
Keep going
- Best Price: Kalshi vs. Polymarket US, after fees
- NBA prices: Kalshi vs. Polymarket US
- Kalshi vs. Polymarket US, side by side
- Arb Scanner: live cross-venue gaps
- What Polymarket US lists in sports
- Probability converter
- NBA hub
- NBA player props
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