It's Friday night. The final injury reports are filed, Chicago beat New England 30-24 in overtime on Thursday, and 13 games are left. Monday's version of this page was a list of forks waiting to break. This is the board after Friday: which forks broke, which ones didn't, and what the market did about it. Every price is Kalshi at 6 PM ET Friday, Oct. 23. Every line is the median of nine books at 4:40 PM ET. Every status is the NFL's official league injury report as of 6:35 PM ET. Every model number comes from the same run that prices the game pages.
How to read this page
A Kalshi price is the market's probability: 72¢ means a 72% chance. Four other words do work here.
- Our line is the model's margin for the game, printed beside the nine-book line. The gap between them is a lean: our read against the market's, in points. It is not a position and it is not an edge. Over 77 graded games this season, the model's side has covered 11 of 13 times when it disagreed with the market by 3.5 to 5 points, 10 of 17 at 2 to 3.5 points, and 4 of 9 at 5 points or more. Small samples, treated as such.
- A position needs more than a disagreement. It needs the Kalshi price to sit away from the books' own consensus by more than the book's spread, after the fee. This week, nothing does. The closest is below.
- An Oracle Fork is a game whose starting quarterback is officially unresolved on Friday. We don't blank the game and we don't guess. We publish both lines, with the starter and with the backup, and say where the market sits between them.
- QB-adjusted means a starter is confirmed but isn't the quarterback the team's power rating was built on. One line, and our lean is capped at Watch no matter how big the number is.
The Week 7 board
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Kalshi (Fri 6 PM) | Nine-book line · total | Our line | QB status on our board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, final | Patriots at Bears | — | CHI −3 · 50.5 | — | Bears 30, Patriots 24 (OT) |
| Sun 9:30 AM, London | Steelers at Saints | Steelers 61¢ | PIT −3 · 44.5 | PIT by 2.5 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | 49ers at Falcons | 49ers 58¢ | SF −2.5 · 50 | SF by 1.8 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Bengals at Ravens | Ravens 50¢ / Bengals 50¢ | CIN −1 · 48.5 | BAL by 2.9 with Jackson · CIN by 1.4 with Huntley | Oracle Fork: Jackson / Huntley |
| Sun 1 PM | Buccaneers at Panthers | Panthers 60¢ | CAR −2.5 · 44.5 | CAR by 3.1 with Mayfield · CAR by 7.6 with Daniels | Oracle Fork: Mayfield / Daniels |
| Sun 1 PM | Giants at Texans | Texans 81¢ | HOU −10.5 · 42.5 | Under review | QB-adjusted: McCarthy |
| Sun 1 PM | Colts at Vikings | Vikings 72¢ | MIN −6.5 · 41.5 | MIN by 3.8 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Dolphins at Jets | Jets 67¢ | NYJ −4.5 · 39.5 | NYJ by 4.7 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Browns at Titans | Browns 54¢ | CLE −2 · 37 | CLE by 1.2 | Set (Watson; Gabriel out) |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos at Cardinals | Broncos 66¢ | DEN −4.5 · 43 | DEN by 2.7 | Set |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Packers at Lions | Lions 63¢ | DET −3.5 · 53.5 | DET by 1.5 | Set |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Rams at Raiders | Rams 62¢ | LAR −3.5 · 48.5 | LAR by 2.6 | Set |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Chiefs at Seahawks | Seahawks 58¢ | SEA −2.5 · 42.5 | SEA by 4.9 | Set |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Cowboys at Eagles | Cowboys 64¢ | DAL −4.5 · 44 | DAL by 0.9 | QB-adjusted: McKee for Hurts |
Kalshi prices are mid-prices, rounded, with the favorite's price shown; where the favorite is the road team it is the complement of the home contract. Lines are the median of nine books. The Bills, Jaguars, Chargers and Commanders are on bye. Every spread ladder and both lines of each fork are on the Week 7 schedule.
Friday's report moved the board a little, not a lot. Baltimore went from 52.5¢ at 8 AM to 50¢ at 6 PM after Jackson's questionable tag landed. Detroit firmed from 61.5¢ to 63¢, New Orleans from 37.5¢ to 39¢, Las Vegas from 36.5¢ to 38¢, and Kansas City slipped from 43.5¢ to 42¢ on the road. Everything else held within a cent.
The two Oracle Forks
1. Lamar Jackson, questionable: Bengals at Ravens
The status: questionable, ankle, after a limited Friday practice. Jackson missed Weeks 5 and 6 and Tyler Huntley started both, the second a 13-10 loss in Cleveland. Baltimore's report also lists cornerback T.J. Tampa as doubtful (knee), with linebacker Tavius Robinson (pectoral) and safety Jaylinn Hawkins (knee) out. Cincinnati's Friday report carries no game designations at all.
The two lines: with Jackson, our model has the Ravens by 2.9. With Huntley, it has the Bengals by 1.4. The nine-book line is Bengals by 1, which sits almost on top of our Huntley line, and Kalshi has the game at 50¢ a side. Read that as the market pricing Huntley in with a little room for Jackson, which is exactly what a questionable tag after a limited practice should look like.
What it means for the lean: with Jackson, our line is nearly four points better for Baltimore than the market's, a Watch-level lean. With Huntley, we agree with the market. That is why the fork exists. There is one game in the two numbers, and only Sunday's inactives collapse it.
Props: none publish from a forked game. Every Bengals–Ravens prop on our board stays flagged until the quarterback is settled. Live board: Bengals at Ravens.
2. Baker Mayfield, questionable: Buccaneers at Panthers
The status: questionable, thumb, after a full Friday practice. Jalon Daniels has started the last three games, including last Sunday's 26-19 loss to Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay's stated plan as of Oct. 21 was to start Daniels and evaluate Mayfield's progress, per Sports Illustrated. The Buccaneers are also without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib), tackle Luke Goedeke (calf) and receiver Emeka Egbuka (concussion, foot). Carolina lost linebackers Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and Thomas Incoom (calf).
The two lines: with Mayfield, our model has the Panthers by 3.1. With Daniels, Panthers by 7.6. The nine-book line is Carolina by 2.5, which sits beyond our Mayfield line, not between the two. The market is pricing Mayfield in, and then some. Kalshi has the Panthers at 60¢.
What it means: if Mayfield starts, we're half a point from the market and this is a quiet game. If Daniels starts, our line is five points further toward Carolina than the market's. That gap is the whole story of this fork, and it resolves at the inactives. Live board: Buccaneers at Panthers.
Two QB-adjusted games
Cowboys at Eagles, Monday night
This is not a fork. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve after Philadelphia announced deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in both lungs; he cannot play contact sports while on blood thinners and is expected to make a full recovery, per the team and his agent. Tanner McKee starts, after a Week 6 start in which he threw 45 times in a 25-14 loss to Carolina. A confirmed absence gets one line, labeled QB-adjusted.
Our adjusted line: Cowboys by 0.9. The nine-book line: Cowboys by 4.5. Kalshi: Dallas about 64¢. Our lean toward Philadelphia is 3.6 points, which would be a Moderate lean on a normal game; on a QB-adjusted game it is capped at Watch by rule, and nothing that depends on the game line publishes. Both teams play Monday, so their final injury reports arrive Saturday, not Friday. Live board: Cowboys at Eagles.
Giants at Texans
New York named J.J. McCarthy the starter after Wednesday's practice, with Jameis Winston the backup, and the fork this game carried from Sunday through Wednesday collapsed into one QB-adjusted line. The nine-book line is Houston by 10.5 and Kalshi has the Texans at 81¢, the biggest favorite of the week.
Our line on this game is held for review this week. When the model and the market disagree by a touchdown-sized number, a person looks at it before it prints, and this one is still on that desk. We'd rather show you a blank than a number we haven't checked.
The injury report is the other half of the story. Houston is without running back David Montgomery (groin), safeties Reed Blankenship (concussion, hand) and Jalen Pitre (shoulder) and tackle Blake Fisher (thumb), with Tank Dell questionable (knee). New York lost cornerback Greg Newsome II (concussion) and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder), tight end Theo Johnson is doubtful (neck), and both tackles, Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) and Marcus Mbow (knee), are questionable along with cornerback Paulson Adebo and safeties Jevon Holland and Tyler Nubin. Live board: Giants at Texans.
Where our line and the market disagree
Three games carry a Watch-level lean after Friday's run, plus one that sits just under the bar.
Chiefs at Seahawks, Sunday night. Our line: Seahawks by 4.9. Nine-book line: Seattle by 2.5. Kalshi: Seahawks 58¢, up from 56.5¢ at 8 AM. Seattle sits first in our power ratings (+3.7); Kansas City is 12th (+1.2). The Chiefs are without Rashee Rice (hamstring, knee), running back Brashard Smith (hamstring) and tackle Jaylon Moore (concussion), with L'Jarius Sneed questionable (knee). Seattle has Zach Charbonnet (knee) and linebackers Chazz Surratt and Drake Thomas out, with DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu questionable. Live board: Chiefs at Seahawks.
Colts at Vikings. Our line: Vikings by 3.8. Nine-book line: Minnesota by 6.5. Kalshi: Vikings 72¢. The model likes Indianapolis almost three points more than the market does, and the market has reasons: the Colts are without cornerback Sauce Gardner (calf), tight end Tyler Warren (groin) and receiver Anthony Gould (concussion). Minnesota's report lists only Jordan Mason (thumb) as questionable. The Week 6 look-ahead on this page asked where the targets go if T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison sit; neither is on Minnesota's Friday report. Jefferson's under 5.5 receptions became one of the week's two prop Plays on Saturday's run, below. Live board: Colts at Vikings.
Cowboys at Eagles is the third, covered above.
Packers at Lions sits just under the bar: our line is Detroit by 1.5 against a nine-book line of 3.5, a two-point lean toward Green Bay. Kalshi has the Lions at 63¢, up from 61.5¢ at 8 AM, and the total, 53.5, is the highest of the week. Green Bay's defense is the injury story: linebacker Zaire Franklin is out (shin), cornerback Benjamin St-Juste (hamstring) and tackle Jordon Riley (Achilles) are questionable. Detroit's report is short: safety Brian Branch (Achilles) and center Cade Mays (wrist), both questionable. Live board: Packers at Lions.
The rest of the slate
Steelers at Saints (London, 9:30 AM). Nine-book line Pittsburgh by 3, total 44.5, our line Steelers by 2.5. Kalshi: Steelers 61¢, with New Orleans firming from 37.5¢ to 39¢ across Friday. Pittsburgh is without receiver Ben Skowronek (calf) and cornerback Brandin Echols (hamstring); Rico Dowdle (knee) and DeShon Elliott (knee) are questionable. New Orleans lists guard Cesar Ruiz (knee) and defensive tackle Nathan Shepherd as questionable. Game page.
49ers at Falcons. Nine-book line San Francisco by 2.5, total 50, our line 49ers by 1.8. Kalshi: 49ers 58¢. San Francisco plays without Nick Bosa (knee, calf), Mike Evans (ribs, Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring), and Christian Kirk (calf) is questionable, so the receiver room is George Kittle and whoever is healthy. Atlanta's report is the longest of the week at 14 names: running back Brian Robinson (hamstring), cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. and linebacker Divine Deablo are out; A.J. Terrell, Za'Darius Smith, Olamide Zaccheaus and Beaux Collins are among the questionable. Game page.
Dolphins at Jets. Nine-book line Jets by 4.5, total 39.5, our line Jets by 4.7. The model and the market agree here. Kalshi: Jets 67¢. Breece Hall (quadricep) and Kene Nwangwu (knee) are questionable for New York; Miami lists Rob Beal Jr. doubtful and Willie Gay Jr. questionable. Game page.
Browns at Titans. Nine-book line Cleveland by 2, total 37, the lowest of the week. Our line: Browns by 1.2. Kalshi: Browns 54¢. Dillon Gabriel is out (back), so Deshaun Watson starts for Cleveland; Denzel Ward (hand), Dylan Sampson (knee) and Grant Delpit (concussion, shoulder) are questionable. Tennessee has Calvin Ridley (hip) and Tyjae Spears questionable. This is also the game that came closest to a position this week, below. Game page.
Broncos at Cardinals. Nine-book line Denver by 4.5, total 43, our line Broncos by 2.7. Kalshi: Broncos about 66¢. Pat Surtain II is questionable (ankle), Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) and Tyler Badie (thumb) are out. Arizona is without Walter Nolen (ankle), Jeremiyah Love (ankle) and Jon Gaines II; Budda Baker (groin, illness) and Max Melton (knee) are questionable. Kendrick Bourne's receptions prop, one of the week's two Plays, is in this game, below. Game page.
Rams at Raiders. Nine-book line Rams by 3.5, total 48.5, our line Rams by 2.6. Kalshi: Rams 62¢, with Las Vegas firming from 36.5¢ to 38¢ on Friday. Puka Nacua is questionable (calf) along with Trent McDuffie (groin); Nate Landman is out (concussion). The Raiders are without Dont'e Thornton Jr. (hamstring) and Carter Runyon (foot), and Mike Washington Jr. (foot, back) is questionable. Game page.
The prop board: two Plays, 106 Watch rows
Saturday's 8 AM run priced 629 player props against Kalshi's strikes. Five hundred twenty-one were flagged and don't publish. One hundred six are Watch rows: they render on the prop board with their label, they're capped at Moderate, and they never become the top call. Two are Plays. On Friday night there was one.
The Play: Kendrick Bourne over 3.5 receptions, Cardinals vs. Broncos. Our calibrated probability is 55%. Kalshi's price was 47¢ and the contract cost 48¢ to buy, at 6 PM Friday and again at 8 AM Saturday. HIGH tier.
The Play: Justin Jefferson under 5.5 receptions, Vikings vs. Colts. This was a Watch row on Friday and cleared every gate on Saturday's run. We make the over 45%; Kalshi prices it at 51¢, and the under cost 50¢ to buy at 8 AM. HIGH tier.
The Watch rows worth knowing, receptions only, where we can show our number (Saturday 8 AM run):
| Player | Market | Our calibrated odds | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zachariah Branch, ATL | Over 1.5 receptions | 56% | 35¢ |
| Kayshon Boutte, HOU | Over 1.5 receptions | 55% | 38¢ |
| J.K. Dobbins, DEN | Over 1.5 receptions | 52% | 38¢ |
| Tre Tucker, LV | Over 3.5 receptions | 51% | 45¢ |
| Kyle Juszczyk, SF | Over 1.5 receptions | 52% | 46¢ |
| Sam LaPorta, DET | Under 4.5 receptions | 44% | 55¢ |
| Isaiah Likely, NYG | Under 5.5 receptions | 36% | 49¢ |
| Kenneth Walker III, KC | Under 3.5 receptions | 38% | 45¢ |
Most of those over rows share a reason for the Watch label: someone in that player's room is on the injury report, and the model prices the room as if he plays. Branch (Robinson out, Zaccheaus and Collins questionable), Boutte (Montgomery out, Dell questionable), Dobbins (Badie out) and Juszczyk (Evans and Samuel out, Kirk questionable) are all that case. If the questionable names sit, those overs get better. If they play, they don't.
Rushing yards, receiving yards, passing yards and passing touchdowns are different. Our display probability on those four stat families is held while their calibration is under review, so the board shows the side and the price and leaves our number blank. The Watch rows there: MarShawn Lloyd over 14.5 rushing yards (Kalshi 37¢) and Pierre Strong over 9.5 (46¢) for Green Bay; Bo Nix under 224.5 passing yards (48¢). Every strike on every ladder, with the books beside Kalshi, is on the Oracle Ladder.
What our screen flags right now
Nothing clears the position bar. The closest is Cleveland at Tennessee: at the Kalshi mid, the Browns' price sat 2.5 points of probability away from what the books' consensus implies, which is a Moderate gap. At the price a trader actually pays for Cleveland, 56.7¢ with the taker fee, the gap is 0.3 points. That isn't a position, and the board doesn't call it one. The fee calculator is how you check that yourself before any contract.
Look-ahead: Week 8 opens Thursday
Panthers at Packers on Thursday night is already listed. Kalshi had Green Bay at 60¢ to 61¢ Friday morning. Carolina's quarterback is Bryce Young either way; Green Bay's defensive injury list above is the thing to carry into that game.
When this page updates
Updated Saturday after the 8 AM refresh: Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield are still questionable, so both forks stand; nobody named above was downgraded; and the prop board moved from one Play to two. The Cowboys and Eagles had not filed their final report as of that run. Sunday, the inactives post 90 minutes before each kickoff, the two forks collapse into one line each, and the props re-price. Every game page and the predictions board move on their own. Trade responsibly: the market is pricing all of this, and you don't have to agree with it.