The midterms were about 2026, and the 2028 market repriced anyway. Between 9:30 AM ET on Nov. 3, before polls opened, and 9:30 AM ET on Nov. 4, Kalshi's presidential ladder got a new leader.
The 2028 ladder, before and after
| Candidate | Nov. 3 | Nov. 4 | Change | Largest daily move, prior 44 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 12¢ | 17¢ | +5¢ | 2¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 20¢ | 13¢ | −7¢ | 1¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 15¢ | 13¢ | −2¢ | 3¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 12¢ | 12¢ | 0¢ | 1¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9¢ | 11¢ | +2¢ | 3¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 3¢ | 6¢ | +3¢ | 1¢ |
| James Talarico | 3¢ | 4¢ | +1¢ | 2¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0¢ | 1¢ |
Prices are the daily snapshot of each KXPRESPERSON-28 contract. The last column is the largest change between two daily snapshots from Sept. 20 to Nov. 3, which is what normal looks like for that contract.
Ossoff, Vance and DeSantis all moved more in a day than they had in the previous 44. Newsom's and Ocasio-Cortez's moves were inside their normal range.
The move kept going through the day. On a Kalshi read Wednesday evening, Ossoff's last trade was 21¢ and Vance's was 16¢.
The winners on the ladder
Three people on the ladder won a race we track.
Jon Ossoff won the Georgia Senate race, called by the Associated Press at 8:02 PM ET on Nov. 3. He was 97¢ on the final pre-election tape, so the race itself wasn't the surprise. His 2028 contract still rose 5¢.
James Talarico won the Texas Senate race, a seat flip, from 74¢ on the final tape. His 2028 contract rose 1¢, inside its normal range.
Josh Shapiro won the Pennsylvania governor race from 98¢. His 2028 contract didn't move.
A contract's price tells you what traders did, not why. Vance's drop was the largest move on the ladder, and he wasn't on the ballot.
The 2028 Trifecta
Kalshi's POWER-28 market prices who holds the House, the Senate and the White House together. It moved more than any single candidate.
| Contract | Nov. 3 | Nov. 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Sweep | 55¢ | 67¢ | +12¢ |
| Republican Sweep | 14¢ | 8¢ | −6¢ |
| D-House, R-Senate, D-President | 10¢ | 2¢ | −8¢ |
| D-House, R-Senate, R-President | 9¢ | 1¢ | −8¢ |
| R-House, D-Senate, R-President | 2¢ | 7¢ | +5¢ |
| D-House, D-Senate, R-President | 3¢ | 6¢ | +3¢ |
Add up the eight contracts by leg and the repricing sits in the Senate.
| Leg | Nov. 3 | Nov. 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the Senate | 61¢ | 82¢ | +21¢ |
| Democrats win the White House | 69¢ | 73¢ | +4¢ |
| Democrats win the House | 77¢ | 76¢ | −1¢ |
Each row sums the four contracts that include that outcome. The eight contracts summed to 97¢ before and 95¢ after, so read these as approximate, not as exact probabilities.
The live ladder, the nomination markets and the Trump-term contracts are all on the 2028 presidential hub. The 2026 results are on the results hub, and the graded record is in the 2026 scorecard.