Bears vs Seahawks player props — Kalshi prices vs the books
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 8. Game preview and model line →
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi lists 42 player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Bears vs Seahawks, Week 8.
Kalshi as of Oct 30, 4:10 AM ET · books as of Oct 30, 3:15 AM ET · 153 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 42 with a real two-sided book · 5 priced against 3+ books
This week on the boardNFL Week 8 predictions →NFL Week 9 predictions — early lines →Week 7 results →
Week 8 gamesPanthers at PackersRavens at BillsTitans at BengalsCardinals at CowboysVikings at LionsColts at JaguarsRaiders at JetsBrowns at SteelersFalcons at BuccaneersChargers at RamsChiefs at BroncosPatriots at DolphinsEagles at CommandersBears at Seahawks
Oracle calls for this game
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam DarnoldQBWatch | 5+ rush ydsover 4.5 | SEA vs CHI | YES | 🔒 | MODERATE | Buy YES → | ||
1 of 1 prop · 1 locked (Pro)
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Prop market board — Bears vs Seahawks
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
| Player | Prop | Game | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Novig | ProphetX | Best price | Our P(over) | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | 225+ pass yds | CHI @ SEA | 50.0¢ | 51.9%3bk | -1.9¢ | o -122 / u -104 | o -123 | over · Kalshi 52.8¢under · Novig 51¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | 20+ rush yds | CHI @ SEA | 53.0¢ | 53.9%3bk | -0.9¢ | o -135 / u +104 | o -134 / u +104 | over · Kalshi 56.7¢under · Novig 49¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 100+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 50.5¢ | 50.8%4bk | -0.3¢ | o -113 / u +104 | o -115 / u -101 | over · ESPN Bet 51.2¢under · Novig 49¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Luther BurdenCHI v SEA | 50+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 53.5¢ | 53.8%3bk | -0.3¢ | o -130 / u +108 | o -132 / u +105 | over · Kalshi 55.7¢under · Novig 48.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Sam DarnoldQBSEA v CHI | 5+ rush yds | CHI @ SEA | 51.0¢ | 51.3%6bk | -0.3¢ | o -111 / u +100 | o -112 / u +100 | over · Novig 52.6¢under · Novig 50¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| AJ BarnerSEA v CHI | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 26.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +245 / u -400 | — | over · Kalshi 28.4¢under · Kalshi 76.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 16.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +488 / u -525 | — | over · Novig 17¢under · Novig 84¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | 2+ pass TDs | CHI @ SEA | 40.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | 250+ pass yds | CHI @ SEA | 37.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +150 | o +150 | over · Novig 40¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | 275+ pass yds | CHI @ SEA | 21.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +270 | o +275 | over · Kalshi 25.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | 10+ rush yds | CHI @ SEA | 75.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -426 | o -560 | over · Kalshi 79.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI v SEA | 25+ rush yds | CHI @ SEA | 37.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +117 | o +108 | over · Kalshi 45.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v SEA | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 27.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +223 / u -257 | — | over · Kalshi 29.4¢under · Novig 72¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v SEA | 40+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 53.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -135 | o -146 | over · Kalshi 56.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Colston LovelandCHI v SEA | 50+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 40.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +130 | o +122 | over · Novig 43.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Cooper KuppSEA v CHI | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 24.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +270 / u -308 | — | over · BetRivers 25.6¢under · Novig 75.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v SEA | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 50.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +100 / u -102 | — | over · Novig 50¢under · Novig 50.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v SEA | 2+ TDs | CHI @ SEA | 12.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| D'Andre SwiftCHI v SEA | 3+ TDs | CHI @ SEA | 3.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Emanuel WilsonSEA v CHI | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 41.0¢ | — | one-sided | o -108 | — | over · Kalshi 47.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Eric SaubertSEA v CHI | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 6.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +1076 / u -1329 | — | over · BetRivers 7.1¢under · Novig 93¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 50.0¢ | — | one-sided | o -113 / u +100 | — | over · BetRivers 51.7¢under · Novig 50¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 2+ TDs | CHI @ SEA | 13.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 3+ TDs | CHI @ SEA | 3.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 50+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 87.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -1076 | o -1300 | over · Kalshi 88.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 60+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 81.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -614 | o -660 | over · Kalshi 83¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 70+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 74.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -344 | o -400 | over · Kalshi 77.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 80+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 67.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -212 | o -255 | over · Novig 67.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 90+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 58.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -156 | o -172 | over · Kalshi 60.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 120+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 33.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +156 | o +132 | over · Kalshi 36.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 140+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 21.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +270 | o +245 | over · Kalshi 25.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA v CHI | 150+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 16.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +388 | o +355 | over · Kalshi 19¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Luther BurdenCHI v SEA | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 27.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +233 / u -270 | — | over · Kalshi 29.4¢under · Novig 73¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Luther BurdenCHI v SEA | 3+ TDs | CHI @ SEA | 2.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Luther BurdenCHI v SEA | 60+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 40.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +127 | o +122 | over · Kalshi 43.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Rome OdunzeCHI v SEA | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 26.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +257 / u -285 | — | over · Novig 28¢under · Novig 74¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Rome OdunzeCHI v SEA | 2+ TDs | CHI @ SEA | 2.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Rome OdunzeCHI v SEA | 20+ rec yds | CHI @ SEA | 78.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -456 | o -520 | over · Kalshi 80.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Sam DarnoldSEA v CHI | 225+ pass yds | CHI @ SEA | 55.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -144 / u +113 | o -142 | over · Kalshi 58.7¢under · Novig 46.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Sam DarnoldSEA v CHI | 250+ pass yds | CHI @ SEA | 40.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +127 / u -163 | o +128 | over · Kalshi 42.7¢under · Novig 62¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Sam DarnoldSEA v CHI | 300+ pass yds | CHI @ SEA | 17.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +400 | o +405 | over · ProphetX 19.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Sam RoushCHI v SEA | anytime TD | CHI @ SEA | 9.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +809 / u -900 | — | over · Kalshi 10.6¢under · Novig 90¢ | — | Kalshi → |
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Same props on both venues: Kalshi vs Polymarket US
Bears at Seahawks · same player, stat and threshold · cost to buy after fees · as of 4:10 AM ET
| Player prop (124) | Kalshi4:10 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner4:35 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams anytime TD | no current price | 17¢18¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 300+ pass yds | no current price | 21¢22.2¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba first TD | 16¢16.9¢ after fees | 15¢15.9¢ after fees | Polymarket US1.1¢ less |
| Luther Burden III 50+ rec yds | no current price | 56¢57.7¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD | no current price | 55¢56.7¢ after fees | — |
| Cooper Kupp anytime TD | no current price | 26¢27.3¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ TDs | no current price | 20¢21.1¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 70+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ rec yds | no current price | 53¢54.7¢ after fees | — |
| Colston Loveland anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| D'Andre Swift anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Sam Roush anytime TD | no current price | 11¢11.7¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond first TD | no two-sided book | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| D'Andre Swift first TD | 13¢13.8¢ after fees | 18¢19¢ after fees | Kalshi5.2¢ less |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 120+ rec yds | no current price | 40¢41.7¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 225+ pass yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Rome Odunze anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Luther Burden III first TD | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Rome Odunze 2+ TDs | no current price | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | — |
| Eric Saubert anytime TD | no current price | 9¢9.6¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 250+ pass yds | no current price | 39¢40.7¢ after fees | — |
| Cooper Kupp first TD | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | 6¢6.4¢ after fees | Even |
| Colston Loveland 40+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Caleb Williams 2+ pass TDs | no current price | 42¢43.7¢ after fees | — |
| D'Andre Swift 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 140+ rec yds | no current price | 26¢27.3¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3+ TDs | no current price | 7¢7.5¢ after fees | — |
| Luther Burden III anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Sam Darnold 225+ pass yds | no current price | 58¢59.7¢ after fees | — |
| Emanuel Wilson anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Sam Darnold 250+ pass yds | no current price | 44¢45.7¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 25+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Caleb Williams 10+ rush yds | no current price | 79¢80.2¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 20+ rush yds | no current price | 57¢58.7¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 275+ pass yds | no current price | 26¢27.3¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 60+ rec yds | no current price | 82¢83¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 80+ rec yds | no current price | 68¢69.5¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 90+ rec yds | no current price | 60¢61.7¢ after fees | — |
| Luther Burden III 60+ rec yds | no current price | 44¢45.7¢ after fees | — |
| Colston Loveland 50+ rec yds | no current price | 43¢44.7¢ after fees | — |
| Rome Odunze 20+ rec yds | no current price | 81¢82.1¢ after fees | — |
| Roschon Johnson 2+ TDs | no current price | 9¢9.6¢ after fees | — |
| D'Andre Swift 3+ TDs | no current price | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | — |
| George Holani 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Sam Darnold 4+ pass TDs | no current price | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner first TD | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 7¢7.5¢ after fees | Polymarket US1.1¢ less |
| Colston Loveland first TD | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Rome Odunze first TD | 7¢7.5¢ after fees | 7¢7.5¢ after fees | Even |
| Tory Horton first TD | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | Even |
| Caleb Williams first TD | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | Even |
| Sam Darnold first TD | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | Even |
| Eric Saubert first TD | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | Even |
| Roschon Johnson first TD | no two-sided book | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Roush first TD | no two-sided book | 3¢3.2¢ after fees | — |
| Zavion Thomas first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Emanuel Wilson first TD | 14¢14.8¢ after fees | no two-sided book | — |
| George Holani first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Caleb Williams 1+ pass TDs | no current price | 80¢81.1¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 3+ pass TDs | no current price | 15¢15.9¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 4+ pass TDs | no current price | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 1+ pass TDs | no current price | 85¢85.9¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 2+ pass TDs | no current price | 51¢52.7¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 3+ pass TDs | no current price | 22¢23.2¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 150+ pass yds | no current price | 90¢90.6¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 175+ pass yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Caleb Williams 200+ pass yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Caleb Williams 300+ pass yds | no current price | 17¢18¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 325+ pass yds | no current price | 11¢11.7¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 150+ pass yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Sam Darnold 175+ pass yds | no current price | 83¢84¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 200+ pass yds | no current price | 72¢73.4¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 275+ pass yds | no current price | 30¢31.5¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 325+ pass yds | no current price | 13¢13.8¢ after fees | — |
| Colston Loveland 20+ rec yds | no current price | 85¢85.9¢ after fees | — |
| Colston Loveland 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Colston Loveland 60+ rec yds | no current price | 33¢34.5¢ after fees | — |
| Colston Loveland 70+ rec yds | no current price | 24¢25.3¢ after fees | — |
| Colston Loveland 80+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Kalif Raymond 10+ rec yds | no current price | 77¢78.2¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond 15+ rec yds | no current price | 68¢69.5¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond 20+ rec yds | no current price | 56¢57.7¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond 25+ rec yds | no current price | 48¢49.7¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond 30+ rec yds | no current price | 41¢42.7¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond 40+ rec yds | no current price | 28¢29.4¢ after fees | — |
| Luther Burden III 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Luther Burden III 30+ rec yds | no current price | 79¢80.2¢ after fees | — |
| Luther Burden III 40+ rec yds | no current price | 67¢68.5¢ after fees | — |
| Luther Burden III 70+ rec yds | no current price | 34¢35.6¢ after fees | — |
| Luther Burden III 80+ rec yds | no current price | 25¢26.3¢ after fees | — |
| Luther Burden III 90+ rec yds | no current price | 19¢20.1¢ after fees | — |
| Rome Odunze 30+ rec yds | no current price | 69¢70.5¢ after fees | — |
| Rome Odunze 40+ rec yds | no current price | 57¢58.7¢ after fees | — |
| Rome Odunze 50+ rec yds | no current price | 44¢45.7¢ after fees | — |
| Rome Odunze 60+ rec yds | no current price | 34¢35.6¢ after fees | — |
| Rome Odunze 70+ rec yds | no current price | 25¢26.3¢ after fees | — |
| Rome Odunze 80+ rec yds | no current price | 19¢20.1¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner 10+ rec yds | no current price | 86¢86.8¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| AJ Barner 30+ rec yds | no current price | 52¢53.7¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner 40+ rec yds | no current price | 39¢40.7¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner 50+ rec yds | no current price | 26¢27.3¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner 60+ rec yds | no current price | 18¢19¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner 70+ rec yds | no current price | 12¢12.7¢ after fees | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 110+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba 130+ rec yds | no current price | 33¢34.5¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 15+ rush yds | no current price | 68¢69.5¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 30+ rush yds | no current price | 36¢37.6¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 40+ rush yds | no current price | 22¢23.2¢ after fees | — |
| Colston Loveland 2+ TDs | no current price | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | — |
| Caleb Williams 2+ TDs | no current price | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond anytime TD | no current price | 15¢15.9¢ after fees | — |
| Kalif Raymond 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Luther Burden III 2+ TDs | no current price | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | — |
| Roschon Johnson anytime TD | no current price | 24¢25.3¢ after fees | — |
| AJ Barner 2+ TDs | no current price | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | — |
| Cooper Kupp 2+ TDs | no current price | 5¢5.3¢ after fees | — |
| Emanuel Wilson 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Emanuel Wilson 3+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| George Holani anytime TD | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Sam Darnold anytime TD | no current price | 14¢14.8¢ after fees | — |
| Sam Darnold 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Tory Horton anytime TD | no current price | 20¢21.1¢ after fees | — |
| Tory Horton 2+ TDs | no current price | 2¢2.1¢ after fees | — |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US only (29)
- AJ Barner 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 64¢
- AJ Barner 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 45¢
- AJ Barner 5+ receptionsPolymarket US 29¢
- AJ Barner 6+ receptionsPolymarket US 19¢
- Caleb Williams 1+ interceptions thrownPolymarket US 53¢
- Caleb Williams 20+ passing completionsPolymarket US 57¢
- Caleb Williams 32+ passing attemptsPolymarket US 57¢
- Colston Loveland 5+ receptionsPolymarket US 45¢
- Colston Loveland 7+ receptionsPolymarket US 21¢
- Irvin Charles anytime TDPolymarket US 3¢
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ receptionsPolymarket US 48¢
- Kalif Raymond 2+ receptionsPolymarket US 72¢
- Kalif Raymond 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 48¢
- Kalif Raymond 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 30¢
- Kalif Raymond 5+ receptionsPolymarket US 17¢
- Luther Burden III 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 63¢
- Luther Burden III 5+ receptionsPolymarket US 47¢
- Luther Burden III 6+ receptionsPolymarket US 32¢
- Luther Burden III 7+ receptionsPolymarket US 21¢
- Rome Odunze 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 43¢
- Rome Odunze 6+ receptionsPolymarket US 17¢
- Sam Darnold 1+ interceptions thrownPolymarket US 54¢
- Sam Darnold 20+ passing completionsPolymarket US 63¢
- Zach Charbonnet 2+ TDsPolymarket US 5¢
- Zach Charbonnet 3+ TDsPolymarket US 2¢
- Zach Charbonnet 9+ fantasy points (PPR)Polymarket US 57¢
- Zach Charbonnet anytime TDPolymarket US 3¢
- Zach Charbonnet first TDPolymarket US 2¢
- Zavion Thomas anytime TDPolymarket US 3¢
Kalshi only (43)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 150+ rec ydsKalshi 18¢
- Sam Darnold 5+ rush ydsKalshi 52¢
- Luther Burden III 110+ rec ydsKalshi 9¢
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 170+ rec ydsKalshi 12¢
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 50+ rec ydsKalshi 88¢
- Luther Burden III 3+ TDsKalshi 3¢
- Sam Darnold 5+ pass TDsKalshi 4¢
- Caleb Williams 350+ pass ydsKalshi 7¢
- Sam Darnold 350+ pass ydsKalshi 8¢
- Sam Darnold 375+ pass ydsKalshi 6¢
- Colston Loveland 100+ rec ydsKalshi 8¢
- Colston Loveland 110+ rec ydsKalshi 6¢
- Colston Loveland 15+ rec ydsKalshi 89¢
- Colston Loveland 25+ rec ydsKalshi 76¢
- Colston Loveland 90+ rec ydsKalshi 11¢
- Kalif Raymond 50+ rec ydsKalshi 17¢
- Kalif Raymond 60+ rec ydsKalshi 12¢
- Kalif Raymond 70+ rec ydsKalshi 9¢
- Luther Burden III 100+ rec ydsKalshi 13¢
- Luther Burden III 120+ rec ydsKalshi 9¢
- Luther Burden III 25+ rec ydsKalshi 83¢
- Rome Odunze 100+ rec ydsKalshi 9¢
- Rome Odunze 110+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- Rome Odunze 15+ rec ydsKalshi 87¢
- Rome Odunze 25+ rec ydsKalshi 74¢
- Rome Odunze 90+ rec ydsKalshi 12¢
- AJ Barner 100+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- AJ Barner 15+ rec ydsKalshi 78¢
- AJ Barner 25+ rec ydsKalshi 61¢
- AJ Barner 80+ rec ydsKalshi 8¢
- AJ Barner 90+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 160+ rec ydsKalshi 19¢
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 180+ rec ydsKalshi 12¢
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 190+ rec ydsKalshi 10¢
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba 200+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- Caleb Williams 50+ rush ydsKalshi 12¢
- Caleb Williams 60+ rush ydsKalshi 8¢
- Sam Darnold 10+ rush ydsKalshi 34¢
- Sam Darnold 15+ rush ydsKalshi 21¢
- Sam Darnold 20+ rush ydsKalshi 13¢
- Sam Darnold 25+ rush ydsKalshi 9¢
- Sam Darnold 30+ rush ydsKalshi 7¢
- CHI Bears D/ST anytime TDKalshi 16¢
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same player, stat and threshold, and the club must agree. The single-venue lists show the ask on the one venue that lists the contract, two-sided books only. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. A price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike
Strikes above, distribution here: our full margin curve beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.
Bears vs Seahawks props — FAQ
What are the player props for Bears vs Seahawks?
42 Kalshi player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Week 8 — passing, rushing, receiving and scoring lines — each shown on this page beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, with the cheapest venue for each side named.
Where are Bears vs Seahawks player props priced best?
The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.
What is the gap column?
The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?
Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 42 strikes with a real two-sided book; 111 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.
Can you trade NFL player props on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL player-prop contracts — for example, will a quarterback record 275 or more passing yards. Each contract settles at $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if no, so its price in cents is the market's implied probability, and traders buy and sell it from each other until it settles.
How is a Kalshi prop different from a prop at the books?
A Kalshi prop is an exchange contract: traders take either side from each other, the price moves with the order book, and a position can be sold before kickoff. At the books the house sets the line. This page reads the books' implied probability at the same line as each Kalshi strike so the two can be compared directly.
What is an Oracle Ladder?
An Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market as a curve — for player props, beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line. Our model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any strike where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refused rather than shown.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 8 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 9 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 7 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket US → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Game-winner, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or game-winner price into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale